OTW Extra Email Archive - June 2022
WIMBLEDON COUNTDOWN:
Grass Court Form Guide…
Thursday 23rd June 2022
Who’s the best player on grass?
The subjective debate will always rumble on. Federer, Sampras, McEnroe, Borg? Serena, Venus, Graf, Navratilova?
On the more objective side of things, we can look to the stats. And use the grass-court formbook to give us an interesting steer, ahead of Wimbledon which kicks off on Monday morning. I say interesting, because some of the players I’ve unearthed below are far from household names. And the top of the rankings (and betting) doesn’t always match-up with the top of the grass-court standings…
The Top 16 – MEN…
For today’s analysis I’m focusing on the Top 16 seeds. These are players that – on the rankings at least – are positioned to do well at the event. It certainly doesn’t always go that way. But if Wimbledon was played on paper, then with eight of these top seeds in each side of draw, it would make them the ‘seeded’ top contenders to reach the second week and 4th Round (Last 16).
Now let’s look at the top of the ante-post betting market, as of today, Thursday 23rd June, ahead of the draw which takes place on Friday…
Wimbledon 2022 – Men’s Outright Winner:
Already, from comparing the seeds to the prices, we can see they don’t neatly match-up from top to the bottom…
For example, Diego Schwartzman is 12th seed for Wimbledon, but doesn’t feature anywhere high in the betting (William Hill have him down with the rank outsiders at 200/1). And this is where we can consult the specific grass form. In that example, Schwartzman is won 9 lost 14 for his career on grass, a negative match win-loss, and a less than inspiring 39% win-rate.
Top 16 Men’s Seeds – GRASS Form:
Aside from teenager Alcaraz, who has little to no previous grass form from the pro tour. The grass-court win percentages in that table help us identify the likes of Berrettini, Cilic, and Auger-Aliassime as the ‘next best’ grass contenders from the Top 16 Seeds, aside from the star name favourites Djokovic and Nadal. Berrettini (2021) and Cilic (2017) have both been runner-up at Wimbledon before, and Auger-Aliassime made the quarter finals last year.
The Top 16 – WOMEN…
Now let’s apply the same Seeds – Prices – Grass Form approach to the Women’s event:
And now the betting market…
Wimbledon 2022 – Women’s Outright Winner:
As discussed in my analysis earlier this week, women’s Grand Slams have been wide open for some time now. This is reflected in the shape of the Wimbledon 2022 market. Compare those two William Hill screenshots, for example. The men’s Outright Winner list quickly gets to 80/1, with 100/1+ for the rest of the competitors. While the women’s field has a whole bunch of names up to 25/1, and then 33/1+ for everyone else. Clearly, the bookies aren’t too sure how the women’s event is going to pan out.
To help with (or maybe add to) this intriguing riddle, let’s take stock of the grass form…
Top 16 Women’s Seeds – GRASS Form:
The grass stats certainly add some extra spice to the mix here. The likes of Jabeur, Gauff, Kerber, Halep, and Kontaveit all boast 70%+ career grass win ratios. With 2021 Wimbledon runner-up Pliskova, along with Bencic and Ostapenko, also bringing noteworthy grass-court credentials. Bencic made the Last 16 in 2018, with Ostapenko reaching the semi finals that year.
The next step…
Of course, in this article, we’ve only looked at the Top 16 Seeds for Wimbledon. When the draw is made on Friday, and ahead of the first ball being hit in the 1st round on Monday morning. I’ll be studying the field and plotting out potential routes to the final, with my specific Ones to Watch take on the outsiders, youngsters, and up-and-coming underdogs that can deliver on the grass at big prices at SW19 this year.
The stats and formbook tell us what’s happened in the past. I’ll be using my knowledge, experience – and plenty of hours of honest hard work – with the goal of latching onto exciting players and prices that can spring a surprise at Wimbledon 2022. There’s no crystal ball. But as long-term Ones to Watch members will testify, we’ve done well at ‘predicting’ the next big thing before…
A recent case in point being Iga Swiatek as our 100/1 winner at the French Open 2020. Swiatek has since climbed to no.1 in the world, and won this year’s French Open as the odds-on 4/5 favourite (!). I can’t promise to repeat that big-odds trick. But I’ll certainly be trying…
The doors open tomorrow…
I’m pleased to announce that I’ll be running a Daily VIP Service once again for Wimbledon – and that the doors will be open tomorrow, Friday 24th June.
Getting on early means you’ll be onboard for all my Wimbledon Ones to Watch members-only advice. I’ll be sending out my first advice on Sunday, with play starting on the Monday morning.
This unique DAILY Wimbledon 2022 service will include dedicated coverage of the tournament for the entire fortnight, with a members-only email every day.
Joining the service is the ONLY way you can get all my Wimbledon bets and advice.
Also, all part of the service, members can email me direct during the tournament if any betting assistance is needed.
Look out for your Wimbledon invitation email from me tomorrow…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson