Notes from the Tour: Aces on the Grass...

Thursday 12th June 2025

The rain is splattering on my window as I write this - but we’re officially into the Summer of Tennis…

The first full-grade ATP and WTA grass court tournaments of the year are taking place this week. In total, there are 12 such events this month in the run-up to Wimbledon…

I’ve been covering this sport long enough to know that no one metric can give you a simple ‘winner finding’ angle for your bets. It’s never going to be that easy. But the more research we can do ahead of the big one coming up at SW19, the better…

Last week’s Ones to Watch special report was a big first step in our quest. If you missed it, get your copy of your free Grass Court Season Preview here.

That report looked at 40 of the world’s top male and female players, ranking them by their career grass-court match win rates. Take a look here.

Serving - from a great height…

Another metric for us to consider - and one that can prove very important, especially in the men’s game, where serve really can dominate - is the number of Aces…

A cursory look at the all-time men’s Most Aces leaderboard on grass contains a stack of famous Wimbledon champions and finalists, as well as a couple of less well-known names:

That ‘Most Grass Aces’ Top 10 includes three Wimbledon champs: a certain Mr Roger Federer, the record eight-time men’s winner. ‘Pistol’ Pete Sampras (five titles). And the famous 2001 champion Goran Ivanisevic - his one and only Grand Slam singles trophy.

Marin Cilic was runner-up at Wimbledon in 2017. Milos Raonic got to the final in 2016.

Sam Querrey reached a semi final and two further quarter finals between 2016 and 2019. Greg Rusedski posted one Wimbledon quarter final in his career. Feliciano Lopez was a three-time quarter-finalist, making SW19 his best ‘Slam.

The 6’11” Ivo Karlovic’s best ever Grand Slam run came at SW19 (quarter final). Another extremely tall big server, the 6’10” John Isner, also made his deepest Major run on the grass of Wimbledon (semi final).

All 10 men on that all-time list stand over six foot tall. With seven of them 6’4” or more.

Moving into more recent stats. Here’s the men’s top 10 for most aces on grass last season:

That 2024 grass aces list is something to keep in mind during this month’s turf tournaments, and heading into Wimbledon 2025, which starts on 30th June…

Taylor Fritz (height: 6’5”) has made the Wimbledon quarter finals in two of the last three years. There’s no element of surprise about the 27-year-old world no.7 being in the hat as an SW19 contender…

And the same could be said about fellow current Top 10 player, Jack Draper… 2021 runner-up Matteo Berrettini… and of course, world no.1 Jannik Sinner.

These three men have more of an appealing outsider feel about them right now…

• Hubert Hurkacz is an interesting one. The 6’5” Pole was a 200/1 pick for Ones to Watch members at Wimbledon 2021; he made it all the way to the semi finals, beating Federer along the way. Hubi has yet to reach those heights again. But now, age 28, and attempting something of a 2025 comeback after a period of injury and loss of form (he’s just pulled out of this week’s tournament with a lower back issue) - Hurkacz still has time to make sure he is remembered as more than just a pub-quiz answer to, ‘Who was the last man to beat Roger Federer?’...

• On the young-guns front, 21-year-old Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard catches the eye. He made week two (round of last 16) on his Wimbledon main-draw debut last summer. The Frenchman stands tall at 6’8”... and he’s already being touted as a potential heir to the annual ATP ‘Most Aces’ throne. An accolade bossed for many years by the aforementioned and now-retired big guys, Karlovic and Isner… Note: Ones to Watch in 2025 name Jakub Mensik is top of the current 2025 all-surfaces list for Most Aces

• And if breakthrough moments are on the cards, then look out for Alexander Bublik this summer. The Kazakh will join ‘The 28 Club’ later this month, and will go to Wimbledon buoyed by reaching his first ever Major quarter final, achieved just last week at the French Open. Standing at 6’5” he also ticks the box as a big server capable of doing damage on the grass…

The grass-court studies and Wimbledon preparations continue here at Ones to Watch HQ…

Don’t forget to access your free report here. And I’ll be in touch again soon, with much more to say about the grass this month, and heading into Wimbledon.

P.S
Not a full Ones to Watch member yet? Get your hands on ALL my big-odds, Each Way, tournament picks this summer. Get onboard here…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch