OTW Extra Email Archive - March 2024
Notes from the tour - week 11...
Thursday 14th March 2024
I’m always fascinated by the anything-can-happen nature of sport…
When it comes to betting… if anyone, anywhere, EVER tells you that a bet is ‘nailed on’ – then they are NOT to be trusted. Believe me. Listen to me:
There is no such thing as a nailed-on winner. It. Is. Not. True.
No player, no team…
No horse, no racing car…
Nobody is unbeatable. Believing anything else is a one-way ticket to the poor house.
18/1 in a two-horse race…
This week at Indian Wells, world no.1 Novak Djokovic was beaten by Luca Nardi.
A 20-year-old newcomer ranked no.123 in the world… who was only even in this tournament because another player pulled out injured. Granting the young Italian a ‘Lucky Loser’ ticket into the main draw…
Any boxing bout, snooker, darts, or tennis match… is in essence never anything more than a two-horse race. Nardi was 16/1 in general, 18/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral – and you would’ve been able to get even bigger on the betting exchanges…
I didn’t back Nardi. I thought the upcoming youngster would give a good account of himself against the Grand Slam superstar. But even a long-time underdog bettor like me didn’t get behind the outsider’s chances in that one…
A reminder to us all that favourites don’t always win. And as the late, enthusiastically great Murray Walker used to say as the engines roared on the Silverstone starting grid: anything can happen – and it usually does!
The biggest shock since…
Djokovic’s shock loss was the biggest such upset at an ATP 1000 Masters event since…
Well, since just last year, actually…
Last May in Rome, world no.2 Carlos Alcaraz suffered a surprise defeat to world no.135 Fabian Marozsan. An upset that paid a top price of 25/1. As I said at the time, that was one of the biggest match underdog prices I’ve ever seen.
From 66/1 to 12/1, overnight…
Talking of big outsider results. My Ones to Watch members were on one last night. With 4/1 shot Emma Navarro knocking out world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka…
The 22-year-old American now leads the women’s tour for most match wins in 2024.
Navarro progresses to her maiden WTA 1000 quarter final.
Over on my members-only service, as well as that 4/1 Match Winner bet, we also backed Navarro in the Outright markets: and she’s gone from 66/1 and 50/1, to 14/1 and 12/1, overnight.
Just one of four players that we have in the Indian Wells quarter finals this evening…
Next stop, Miami…
Don’t miss the next big-price upset…
Join me for next week’s Miami Open. One of the biggest tournaments on the calendar…
Join me on the 100/1 quest next week >>
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone