OTW Extra Email Archive - November 2019

An 80/1 shot for 2020…

Monday 4th November 2019

In your Ones to Watch EXTRA email today:

  • One to Watch for the Australian Open 2020…
  • 80/1 De Minaur…
  • More to come…

One to Watch for the Australian Open 2020…

The early bird gets the worm, as they say.

That’s often the case with the Grand Slam markets.

At the start of this summer, our Ones to Watch in 2019 player Daniil Medvedev was 100/1 for the US Open. He went off at 14/1 on the eve of the tournament. Medvedev went on to reach the final and finish runner-up, pushing Rafael Nadal all the way to a deciding set.

We’ll be getting on several players at speculative and attractive prices for the 2020 season…

In September, we got the ball rolling for next season with 50/1 Belinda Bencic for the women’s Australian Open. Bencic is now 33/1 at best, and as short as 16/1 and 10/1 with a couple of firms.

Today we’re taking a first look at the men’s Outright Winner prospects – and another exciting young player with a price that could go before the tour hits Melbourne Park in the New Year…

From ‘Next Gen’ to Grand Slam…

We still have three significant men’s events to come in 2019, played at indoor hard-court venues in the UK, Spain and Italy.

Next week we have the big one at London’s O2 Arena, with the annual ATP Finals. This is a showpiece event with a huge prize-money pot, and the season’s top eight men in action (fitness permitting of course).

After the ATP Finals we have the inaugural Davis Cup Finals in Madrid – the new International team tournament format featuring 18 nations and some of the tour’s top players.

Before all that, we have this week’s third-ever instalment of the ATP Next Gen Finals in Milan…

This event features eight of the top men aged 21 and under. Competing in two groups, with the top two from each group going through to the semi finals.

They play a different game of tennis here in Milan…

‘Sets’ are played as first to four games, with a tiebreak at 3-3. Matches are best of five sets.

They don’t play the usual ‘deuce’, either – the game goes to whoever wins the point at 40-40.

The Milan venue also has ‘bare’ courts with no tramlines for doubles. Other innovations/ experiments include on-court coaching and the use of wearable technologies.

In the previous two incarnations of this quirky tournament, the favourites have delivered the silverware. In 2017, Hyeon Chung was the first champion, at 7/2 (4.50). And last year, Stefanos Tsitsipas took the crown at 2/1 (3.00).

  • The ATP have put a big marketing push behind the ‘Next Generation’ tag in recent years. It seems to be paying off for the sport. In the January directly after winning the Next Gen title, both Chung and Tsitsipas went on to reach the Australian Open semi finals…

Here are this week’s groups, along with the tournament Outright Winner odds:

Group A
Alex De Minaur 7/4 (2.75)
Miomir Kecmanovic 9/1 (10.00)
Casper Ruud 10/1 (11.00)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 16/1 (17.00)

Group B
Frances Tiafoe 5/1 (6.00)
Ugo Humbert 13/2 (7.50)
Jannik Sinner 6/1 (7.00)
Mikael Ymer 10/1 (11.00)

80/1 for Melbourne…

The favourite is another of our Ones to Watch in 2019 players, Alex De Minaur. The young Australian has had a great year, winning no fewer than three ATP titles. That comes after Alex finished runner-up in his first two final appearances, in 2018. He also got to the Next Gen final 12 months ago.

De Minaur’s line of progress has gone up in recent weeks, with a strong end to the season seeing him reach the final in three of his last five tournaments – all on hard courts or indoor hard courts.

That all adds up to Alex reaching a new career high ranking of No.18 in the world. And seeing as he doesn’t turn 21 until February, this hard-working Aussie could be even higher by then…

With the potential for that ‘Milan winner/ Melbourne semi final’ trend noted above continuing – as well as this player’s overall progress over the last two seasons – odds of 80/1 and 66/1 mark De Minaur out as an early One to Watch for the Australian Open in January.

In the last two years Alex has started the season by reaching the final at ATP Sydney. Those Australian Open prices could drop if he wins a title or two between now and the first Grand Slam of 2020.

  • Alex De Minaur is available @ 80/1 (81.00) Each Way with NetBet, 10Bet, 66/1 (67.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Latest Australian Open 2020 odds here

More to come…

I’ll be back throughout November with news of our upcoming Ones to Watch in 2020 player list, more (big) early Grand Slam prices – and also coverage of this month’s Davis Cup Finals.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch Extra