Tennis Betting Advice - April 2023
Women's picks at 25/1 and 66/1...
Tuesday 4th April 2023
Good morning. With five tournaments to look at this week, I forgot to say in yesterday’s first email…
Our 50/1 Ones to Watch pick for ATP Estoril, Luca Van Assche, won the French Open Boys’ title in 2021…
And at 18 years of age, Van Assche is currently the youngest player in the men’s world top 100.
Both of which bode well for following the French teenager on clay in the weeks ahead.
Luca plays in the Estoril 1st Round today. He can still be backed at 40/1 this morning (Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral). Play starts at 12 noon UK time, at which point bookies will take down the Outright Winner market for the day.
Our other Monday business was to get behind a pair of 25/1 underdogs for ATP Houston. Jason Kubler beat 39-year-old Fernando Verdasco last night, 7-6, 6-0. A sweet moment for Kubler, who once hit with the Spaniard as a 14-year-old junior. Marcos Giron plays in the 1st Round today. Play starts from 6pm UK time. Both men can still be backed at 25/1 today, with Bet365 going 28/1 for Giron.
I said it’s a busy week… with spring in the air, we’re heading towards the beating heart of the tennis season…
Today we’re looking at the two women’s tournaments taking place this week. In both cases, play starts from 4pm UK time…
Ones to Watch in Charleston @ 50/1 and 66/1…
America’s number one female player Jessica Pegula heads up the betting here. Now up to a career high of no.3 in the world, we have to respect Jess in any tournament right now. However, to be hyper-critical, it could be said that the 29-year-old needs to add to just two WTA titles to date. A high ranking is one thing, but consistently putting silverware in the cabinet is something else. The history books tend to remember trophy wins more than rankings records. So far this season, Pegula has gone: Quarter Final, Final (Runner-Up), Semi Final, Last 16, Semi Final.
Pegula is the 4/1 favourite this week. Closely followed by reigning champion Belinda Bencic at around 5/1. The Swiss has won two WTA titles already this year. Another hyper-critical fact from the notebook though, suggesting a slight lack of absolute elite-level mental edge: Bencic has never successfully defended a title. The pressure is on here, with a stack of ranking points to protect at this 500-grade event. I don’t like 5/1 here. Last time we backed Belinda anywhere, it was at 20/1+.
Next in the Charleston betting is current world no.5, Ons Jabeur. The likeable Tunisian was runner-up to Bencic here on the ‘green clay’ last year, and a semi-finalist the year before. Injuries have severely slowed her momentum in 2023 though; and I don’t think Ons has yet mentally recovered from losing not one but two Grand Slam finals last season (Wimbledon and US Open)...
Again, being super-critical and demanding the most supreme performance and reliability levels from the players at the top of the sport, it could be suggested that the 28-year-old is ‘better’ than having just three WTA singles trophies on the shelf - and especially so for someone who has been as high as no.2 in the rankings. Jabeur is 13/2 (7.5) to win the title this week.
I much prefer to go for a couple of younger ladies, both of whom we’ve talked about and backed in recent times. With some nice big outsider prices to go in as Each Way Ones to Watch for WTA Charleston this week: 17-year-old LINDA FRUHVIRTOVA at 66/1, and 22-year-old VARVARA GRACHEVA at 50/1…
Fruhvirtova won her 1st Round match as the match underdog on Monday, and I’m willing to forgive her 9 double faults there, seeing as she got the job done and played on the front foot. Ranked 60 in the world, the Czech teenager is earmarked for great things in years to come. Charleston has been the scene of some big-odds tournament breakthroughs before - Veronika Kudermetova winning here at 66/1 in 2019 springs to mind. Linda is very much at home playing in the States, and as I’ve said before, looks to have the hunger and right attitude to develop into a top-level winner.
Gracheva plays today. The 22-year-old Russian - who has lived in France for some time and is in the process of switching to play under the French flag - is up to a career-best no.46 in the world. Having ended 2022 ranked at no.95, that ranking surge comes from a win-heavy start to the season. Varvara has won 14 of her last 17 matches, all on hard courts and all in the USA - including reaching a first final (WTA Austin). That’s a great confidence builder as she stays in the States for a first clay-court event of the campaign, with clay being her most successful surface in terms of overall career match wins to date.
Last week we noted Gracheva’s form ahead of her Miami Open Last 16 match with Petra Kvitova. Considering Kvitova went on to win that big 1000-grade event, there was no shame in that defeat. Varvara has the look of a player who is on the up, yet still flying under the radar.
Ones to Watch in Bogota @ 25/1 and 40/1…
Last but not least for us in this tournament-packed week on the tennis tours, two 25/1 shots who can also fly under the radar somewhat and offer a bit of Outright Winner value…
Considering reigning Bogota champ Tatiana Maria is no better than 8/1 to defend her title, I’m drawn to general odds of 25/1+ for 2022 runner-up LAURA PIGOSSI - with Betfred and BetVictor offering a standout 40/1. As you’d expect from a Brazilian, clay is Pigossi’s best surface. She made a strong start by winning in straight sets in the 1st Round yesterday.
On the opposite side of the Bogota 2023 draw, I have a feeling that KAMILLA RAKHIMOVA is potentially underrated at around the 25/1 mark, too. The 21-year-old Russian made the semi finals here last season, and I reckon there’s more to come from this youngster. Kamilla came through her 1st Round test in straight sets on Monday.
Pigossi is ranked no.101 in the world, and Rakhimova is no.90. But don’t let those low rankings put you off; this WTA 250 event hasn’t attracted the strongest of fields. And in a smaller tournament like this, Pigossi is placed as the no.6 seed, and Rakhimova is the 4th seed.
Plenty of reasons for us to get behind the big odds today…
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
WTA Charleston - Credit One Charleston Open:
Linda Fruhvirtova @ 66/1 Skybet, Betfred, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook, Coral, 50/1 BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports, Betway, 40/1 Bet365, William Hill
Varvara Gracheva @ 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Unibet, 40/1 BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway
WTA Bogota - Copa Colsanitas presented by Zurich:
Laura Pigossi @ 40/1 Betfred, BetVictor, 28/1 Betway, 25/1 Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Boylesports
Kamilla Rakhimova @ 25/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral
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Play starts from 4pm.
P.S
I’ll see you tomorrow for some golf…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson