Ones to Watch in Monte-Carlo at 20/1 and 66/1...

Monday 7th April 2025

As promised, we’re off to Monte-Carlo…

This time last year, we had a 33/1 winner here in the shape of Stefanos Tsitsipas. This week, the Greek player goes off at around 10/1, with several firms shorter. Stef has won this tournament three times in the last four years. Clearly, the current world no.8 likes playing here.

But as always, we want a price with the juice on our side…

World no.2 Alexander Zverev is 11/1. He’s never been to the finals here in Monte-Carlo. Managing two semi finals in eight visits to Monaco’s flagship tennis tournament. Since reaching the Australian Open final in January, Sascha has yet to string together more than two match wins in a row.

For several of the big names on show this week - including the two favourites at the top of the betting, 6/4 (2.5) Carlos Alcaraz and 5/1 (6.0) Novak Djokovic, as well as Tsitsipas. This will be a first clay-court tournament appearance since last summer’s Paris Olympics. That can only add more question marks next to the players trading at the shortest odds…

The Ones to Watch way doesn’t change. If you’re new here:

In the tournament Outright Winner markets, we go after appealing outsiders - at attractive Each Way prices…

On that front, let’s consider some underdogs for the first clay ATP Masters 1000 event of 2025…

The upcoming 2nd-round tie between Jiri Lehecka and Lorenzo Musetti is a very hard one to call. Those guys are both 23 years of age. And priced at around 33/1 each for Monte-Carlo with most firms, as I write this Monday night.

Lehecka featured prominently in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2025 Report.

While Musetti is in the book for us as a terre battue star-in-waiting, put up as a 100/1 shot for next month’s men’s French Open 2025, back in November 2024.

The victor of the Lehecka-Musetti clash may well get a crack at Zverev in the 3rd round, should the German get there. It’s a shame that Jiri and Lorenzo are facing each other so early in the competition; it’s probably not the smartest move to back them both here, knowing that one will fall straight away.

HOLGER RUNE is also in this quarter of the draw, which also contains reigning champ Tsitsipas. We’ve backed Rune with success at Masters level more than once already. The young Dane has experienced his best results at these ATP 1000 events. Including winning the Rolex Paris Masters in 2022. Finishing runner-up at Indian Wells last month. And getting to the final here at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters in 2023…

Rune often makes life hard for himself, for example, having to come from a set down to win a match. But then again, the talented and energetic 21-year-old has shown many times already in his young career that he has a taste for a comeback, and for the big stage.

What’s more, should they meet this week - and they may well do - world no.12 Rune has a 4-0 career head-to-head record v Tsitsipas (3-0 in completed matches). Including a victory in their sole previous encounter on clay, at the French Open 2022. We’ll take Holger at 20/1 here.

In the opposite half of the draw, ALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA is a potential dark horse. The Spaniard is one of the most talented men in the sport yet to win a title. He’s come oh-so-close… including losing from match points up in the ATP Delray Beach final in February…

To his credit, the 25-year-old then dusted himself off and went again, reaching the final again in his very next tournament at ATP Acapulco - and having to settle for the runner-up trophy once again.

The biggest final of Davidovich Fokina’s career to date came here at this very venue, with the current world no.42 reaching the Monte-Carlo championship match in 2022 - having gone off as a 150/1 rank outsider.

What I like about backing Alejandro tonight/ Tuesday is that he’s already through to round two, having passed a very tough test by beating Ones to Watch youngster Ben Shelton in a three-set scrap on Monday. That’s a nice hurdle to have overcome, and has to be good for his confidence. We’ll take 33/1. He’s going to come good in a big match one day…

One more name to get in the book - this time before he’s hit a ball this week - is our Ones to Watch in 2024listed player, ARTHUR FILS. The 20-year-old Frenchman is up to a new career-high ranking of no.15 in the world, having just posted back-to-back Masters quarter finals at Indian Wells and Miami in March.

Fils has already won three titles on the ATP Tour, with two of them coming on clay. He looks to be improving all the time. If he can stay injury-free (the issue with a lot of youngsters), then Arthur can do something special at odds of 66/1 - 50/1.

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Ones to Watch picks:

See above for full details

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

ATP Monte-Carlo - Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters:

• Holger Rune @ 20/1 Bet365, Betfred, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, William Hill, 888 Sports, Boylesports

• Alejandro Davidovich Fokina @ 33/1 Betfred, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Sporting Index, SpreadEx, 28/1 Bet365, 888 Sport, Skybet

• Arthur Fils @ 66/1 Skybet, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, 60/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports

Tuesday’s matches start at 10am, UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during play.

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I’ll be back on Thursday with my next ‘Notes from the Tour’piece for you.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch