Tennis Betting Advice - April 2026
ATP Madrid: Ones to Watch at 33/1 and 80/1...
Tuesday 21st April 2026
Last year’s men’s Mutua Madrid Open saw 18/1 shot Casper Ruud beat 28/1 Jack Draper in the final. Draper is out injured this time, while Ruud looks to return to form on his favoured surface, having become a father for the first time earlier this year.
ATP Madrid has a good recent history for decent-odds finalists. The 2024 event saw 33/1 Andrey Rublev take the crown, with Felix Auger-Aliassime a massive 150/1 runner-up…
The 2023 final was won by Spanish wonderkid Carlos Alcaraz as the odds-on favourite – but the other finalist that week was Jan-Lennard Struff at a colossal 200/1. World no.2 Alcaraz is now out injured.
The list goes on. For example, Madrid 2021 produced a 25/1 champion in Alexander Zverev, with Matteo Berrettini the 50/1 runner-up.
With Carlos out, the dominant world no.1 Jannik Sinner has been installed as the 4/9 (1.44) favourite – 8/15 (1.53) at best – for the 2026 Madrid Open trophy. That’s very likely the shortest price we’ll see for any player to win any big tournament, all year.
We also need to take note here that the withdrawal of what would have been the co-favourite or second favourite Alcaraz, has led some bookmakers to deem it acceptable (they would say necessary) to instate reduced Each Way terms of 1/3 odds for 1-2 places, as opposed to the usual 1/2 odds payout for reaching the final. I’ve referred to bookies with the better (1/2 odds) terms in the bet box quotes at the end of this article.
While Skybet (and Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook – same collective), along with BetMGM (and VirginBet, BetUK & LiveScoreBet – same sportsbook) have gone Win Only; the message being that the bookmakers genuinely fear/ predict a Sinner whitewash here.
Four men to follow at big prices…
In the top half with Sinner the man to beat, ARTHUR FILS is a very interesting outsider at 33/1 in general. The Frenchman won the ATP 500 title on clay in Barcelona last week – having gone off as the 7/1 second favourite to Alcaraz (who then withdrew after one match)…
Fils was a two-time pick for us on hard courts during last month’s Sunshine Double in the States. The 21-year-old Frenchman, resurgent on the comeback from injury so far this year, made the quarter finals at Indian Wells (backed at 150/1), and then the semi finals for us in Miami (at 80/1). He’s knocking on the door at these ATP Masters 1000 events, just like he was last season before injury took him off the tour.
Having reached the final in Doha in February and won Barcelona last week, Arthur has now gone: final (won) – semi-final – quarter-final – final (runner-up) in his last four tournaments. That’s impressive.
Two questions to be answered here once play begins over the next few days –will Fils’ body hold out okay after last week’s five-match winning run, and can he (or anyone) beat Sinner? A Yes to both is certainly not a crazy thought. Sinner is yet to win this title. That might be ominous for the field and entire chasing pack. On the other hand, the recent success of players at outsider prices here in Madrid suggests a 33/1 shot with form and firepower like world no.25 Fils should not be discounted here.
In the bottom half (sans Alcaraz, can’t meet Sinner until final), let’s go for two big prices…
FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO has gone quarter-final and then semi-final in his last two attempts here. The Argentinean has serious clay-court pedigree and a substantial forehand to boot. There’s an opportunity for him to go one better and make the Madrid final this time. Odds of 80/1 and 66/1 appeal for the 27-year-old world no.20.
The chunky prices for the man Cerundolo beat in last year’s quarter-finals, JAKUB MENSIK, also warrant our Ones to Watch attention. The big-hitting Czech youngster has already shown what he can do at Masters 1000 level, winning the Miami Open at triple-figure odds in 2025.
The 20-year-old world no.27 is one of the underdog talents with the capabilities to prevent the Sinner-Zverev final that the bookies’ prices are anticipating. With Alexander Zverev at 17/2 (9.5) the clear second favourite in the Outright Winner market. The German has never played Mensik, and should that match-up occur in the last 16 here, the younger man would be a dangerous underdog…
And finally…
Coming full-circle back to the top half of the draw, another big price worth attacking is for Mensik’s fellow Czech (both were featured in our 2025 Report), JIRI LEHECKA…
The prices are so big here, 80/1 and 66/1 Each Way, because of the Sinner factor. But if the Italian doesn’t do it, someone is going to get to the final at a very big price…
Clay is Lehecka’s best surface in terms of number of career match wins (127), and the 24-year-old world no.14 has looked in smart form of late. Reaching the Miami final in March for a first Masters 1000 final. And now with the chance to go deep on the red dirt, at the same venue where he made the semi finals in 2024. As with Mensik, injury issues do sometimes crop up – but we just have to play the big odds here…
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Note: Lehecka and Mensik are available at 100/1 Win Only with BetMGM (and VirginBet, BetUK, LiveScoreBet).
Play starts on Wednesday morning. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during matches.
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P.S
You can read-up on our women’s Madrid picks from yesterday here.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone