Tennis Betting Advice - August 2022
US Open: Day 3 - match accas at 3/1 and 7/1...
Wednesday 31st August 2022
Welcome to Day 3 of your daily US Open service. Play starts at 4pm, UK time…
The Outright Book…
The 1st round was a mixed bag as always, but we’ve got eight of our 11 Ones to Watch players through to the 2nd round.
That means we have a modest 6.25% of the field on our side. And crucially – all at big prices…
Our summer ante-post women’s picks both fell at the first. With 100/1 Dayana Yastremska arriving out of form and low on confidence. And 33/1 Amanda Anisimova clearly not fully fit last night. She left the court in tears.
Our early-bird men’s selections fared much better…
Cameron Norrie went in the book back in February with some triple-figure and 80/1 odds about, and 40/1+ in general. Cam was a confident 3-0 winner on Tuesday, as was our 50/1 pick from August 1st, Hubert Hurkacz. Both are now trading at 33/1, with Hubi available at 40/1 with Betfred and Unibet.
In yesterday’s email we talked about a few talented Czech youngsters in the women’s, including a couple of promising teenagers…
I feel we picked our way through those names pretty well, backing 17-year-old Linda Fruhvirtova, and opposing fellow 17-year-old Czech, Linda Noskova. Our 100/1+ pick Marie Bouzkova beat the latter, in an all-Czech contest (there’s a theme here). While Fruhvirtova did well, coming through her 1st round match in straight sets – I liked her body language and positive energy when serving for the match.
The 1,000/1, 600/1 and 400/1 quotes for Fruhvirtova got snapped up yesterday. Odds of 200/1 are still available with the likes of Skybet and Betfred, with 100/1+ in general for our teenage long-shot – including 150/1 at Boylesports, Ladbrokes & Coral.
Bouzkova is still available at triple-figure odds with several firms, including Boylesports who are sticking their neck out with a rank-outsider quote of 500/1. Elsewhere, Skybet are 200/1 for the 24-year-old. Sporting Index Fixed Odds are 125/1, and the likes of William Hill and Betfred are 100/1.
As you can probably tell, I’m fascinated with this US Open draw – and determined to play the big prices in the Outright Winner market. Recent Grand Slam evidence says this is the way to go.
And as I always say, at the attractive Each Way odds that we go for, it only takes one…
Here’s our ‘active’ US Open 2022 outright book (original advised prices in brackets):
Men’s
Cameron Norrie 150/1, 100/1, 80/1, 50/1, 40/1
Hubert Hurkacz 50/1
Casper Ruud 66/1, 50/1
Women’s
Veronika Kudermetova 100/1, 80/1, 70/1, 50/1
Liudmila Samsonova 100/1, 80/1, 66/1, 50/1
Beatriz Haddad Maia 33/1, 28/1
Linda Fruhvirtova 1,000/1, 600/1, 400/1, 300/1, 150/1
Marie Bouzkova 150/1, 125/1, 100/1
On the Match Winner front…
The upsets continued yesterday, most notably in the women’s…
Reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina was dumped out by world no.131 Clara Burel – with the Frenchwoman 7/1 for the upset. And a couple of other big scalps also fell at less spectacular odds. With defending US Open champ Emma Raducanu knocked out by Alize Cornet – the French player this time at 13/10 (2.3). And two-time winner Naomi Osaka was taken out by Danielle Collins, with the less-famous American priced at 6/4 (2.5).
On the sniff for a men’s upset, we were definitely in the right ballpark with 7/1 shot Laslo Djere. The 9th seed Andrey Rublev got the job done in the end, but it took him the full five sets, and almost four hours. Our underdog pick Djere came close to taking the 1st Set at 4/1, too – leading by a break at one stage, and eventually pipped in tiebreak, 7-6. Close but no cigar.
3/1 and 7/1 accas…
The 2nd round starts today. Our players feature in a few of the tasty-looking matches on the Day 3 programme, and I fancy their chances…
Liudmila Samsonova is on an 11-match winning streak, and takes on last year’s beaten US Open finalist and Ones to Watch regular Leylah Fernandez. In the night match under the floodlights, Beatriz Haddad Maia is up against the 2019 champion, Bianca Andreescu. In both cases, the bookies have our player as the favourite to progress, and I’d agree. Our two picks aren’t the most fashionable here – but they certainly bring the best recent form.
Veronika Kudermetova is a strong favourite to beat Maryna Zanevska, and while I give the 29-year-old Belgian more credit than some might, our Russian pick should really be looking at this as a great chance to move into the 3rd round, and build some momentum in this US Open draw. On the world rankings, it’s no.18 v no.97.
While in the men’s, Casper Ruud is priced at odds-on to beat this summer’s grass-court breakthrough name, Tim Van Rijthoven. Serve will play a big part here, especially for the Dutchman. Our Norwegian pick can be relied upon to look after his own service deal well, too. And when the ball is in play, I’d definitely give the rallying edge to our boy Casper.
With 32 matches on the Wednesday schedule, there’s plenty to shoot at. Away from the players carrying our tournament stakes, I also like this selection to win today…
Men’s:
Botic Van De Zandschulp to beat Corentin Moutet
Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat Alexander Bublik
Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava
Matteo Berrettini to beat Hugo Grenier
Nick Kyrgios to beat Benjamin Bonzi
Karen Khachanov to beat Thiago Monteiro
Women’s:
Alison Riske-Amritraj to beat Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
Shuai Zhang to beat Anna-Karolina Schmiedlova
Coco Gauff to beat Elena-Gabriela Ruse
Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Evgeniya Rodina
And finally – grab the popcorn…
If you can, tune in at midnight for Serena Williams v Anett Kontaveit.
If ever the rankings didn’t tell the whole story, then this is it…
This match-up, on paper, is world no.605 Williams v world no.2 Kontaveit. Of course, what those numbers don’t us is that Serena has won this tournament six times, and 23 Majors in total. While Kontaveit, despite her current high ranking and 2nd seeding, is yet to get beyond the quarter finals at any of the four Grand Slams.
The rankings also don’t tell us that 99% (at least) of the New York crowd will be rooting for Serena tonight. And if her 1st round night-match on the Arthur Ashe stadium court is anything to go by, then the Americans will be making a lot of noise for their lady. Kontaveit seems a lovely character, and in a situation like this, that might not help her. To beat Serena in what could be her last ever match, you need to be ruthless.
The 26-year-old should beat the 40-year-old here. But while odds of 2/1 don’t really do it for me for Serena tonight, I can’t find myself able to trust Kontaveit at odds-on, either. It’s one to simply watch and enjoy, so grab the popcorn.
If you are able to stay up late, Williams v Kontaveit will be on Amazon Prime Video from midnight onwards. I believe Amazon are offering a 30-day free trial right now. They’re showing all of the US Open matches (as well as most of the ATP & WTA Tour this season). And you can also catch-up by watching replays of the matches, too. I’m not sponsored by Amazon to tell you this, by the way – just sharing some useful info, from one tennis fan to another.
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
Match Winner (details above):
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Play starts from 4pm, UK time.
P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me throughout the tournament at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson