The 100/1 evidence is here...

Friday 25th August 2023

Good morning. We’ve got one player left running for us in this week’s tournaments. Our 10/1 Each Way pick Ekaterina Alexandrova is through to the semi finals at WTA Cleveland, and is now the 13/8 favourite for the trophy.

Truth be told, the Russian hasn’t been playing her best tennis so far in Ohio. But she’s been digging in when it matters, and has had to keep her concentration and ride out a few rain delays. Ekaterina is through to the final four…

As anticipated in Wednesday’s analysis, pre-tournament Cleveland favourite and top seed Caroline Garcia has crashed out before the business end of the competition. Well beaten in straight sets by Lin Zhu on Thursday.

Zhu now faces Alexandrova for a place in the final. Weather permitting, today’s semi-final match is scheduled for 7.30pm UK time, live on Amazon Prime Video.

Five 100/1 winners from 12 tournaments…

With the US Open starting on Monday – here’s a further reminder of why we go after the big prices here at Ones to Watch…

In yesterday’s email, I told you about the recent history for surprise winners and finalists at the US Open. Including the key stat that half of the last 16 champions in New York were first-time Grand Slam winners. Read more here…

That maiden-champ list includes 100/1 Emma Raducanu lifting the US Open women’s title in 2021. Just one entry on an extremely eye-catching list of recent triple-figure success stories in the WOMEN’S Grand Slams…

After Marketa Vondrousova (starting price 150/1) won Wimbledon this summer…

• 5 of the last 12 women's Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ champion

• 17 of the last 31 women's Grand Slams have been won by players lifting a Major trophy for the first time

• Since the Australian Open 2017, when Serena Williams won her last Major – the last 26 women's Grand Slams have produced 17 different winning players

And with 100/1 Karolina Muchova finishing runner-up at the French Open this year…

• 10 of the last 14 women's Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at Day 1 odds of 33/1+

• The last 12 women's Grand Slam finals have featured 9 players at odds of 100/1+

The top stat on that list of bullet points is worth repeating. Five 100/1+ winners from the last dozen women’s Grand Slams. Those players & prices being:

Wimbledon 2023 – Marketa Vondrousova 150/1
Wimbledon 2022 – Elena Rybakina 100/1
US Open 2021 – Emma Raducanu 100/1
French Open 2021 – Barbora Krejcikova 175/1
French Open 2020 – Iga Swiatek 100/1

Some remarkable numbers there…

While in the MEN’S Grand Slams…

With 20-year-old Carlos Alcaraz the world no.1 and reigning US Open champion…

And recent Grand Slam finals seeing the likes of Next Gen names Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, Nick Kyrgios, and Matteo Berrettini, all competing for the biggest trophies in the sport.

It’s fair to say the long-awaited ‘changing of the guard’ is finally starting to happen…

You have to go right back to 2015 the find the last time a men’s US Open final was wholly contested by two of the famous Big Four (Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer). And with Rafael Nadal absent this year, and Andy Murray without a Grand Slam final appearance since 2016…

• Only 4 of the last 27 men’s Grand Slam finals have been all-Big Four encounters. The other 23 have featured at least one new name/ outsider/ Next Gen player – including 9 at odds of 20/1+

Lots of ammo for us there!

See you on Monday for our trip to the Big Apple, when once again we’ll be going after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices…

I’ll be back first thing Monday morning with your US Open Day 1 email.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch