Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023

US Open Day 3: Including an American fighter at 50/1+...

Wednesday 30th August 2023

Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 3. Play starts in New York at 4pm, UK time…

Hubi’s great escape…

A mountain of matches got played yesterday. I watched as much of the late-night action as I could…

I had my head in my hands at around midnight, when our big-odds tournament pick Hubert Hurkacz was two sets and a break of serve down against 8/1 match underdog Marc-Andrea Huesler.

Our man Hubi left it late, but he showed his class in the end. Finally springing into life when Huesler was serving for the match. Hurkacz took control after that, escaping with a 3-2 win.

Outsiders in the book…

The six players we’ve flagged up as Ones to Watch picks in the Outright Winner market so far this week have all made it through to the 2nd round. For one of these then, ‘just six more wins to go’ to take the trophy…

This US Open is sure to have plenty of drama and excitement over the next dozen evenings. As is stands right now, these are the Each Way selections looking to provide the entertainment and profits for us:

Taylor Fritz – best price today: 80/1 Sporting Index
Hubert Hurkacz – best price today: 80/1 Skybet, Sporting Index
Jannik Sinner – best price today: 17/1 Sporting Index

Belinda Bencic – best price today: 80/1 Bet365
Liudmila Samsonova – best price today: 66/1 Sporting Index
Elina Svitolina – best price today: 66/1 Bet365

  • As you can see, Sporting Index Fixed Odds are sticking their neck out with a few standout prices. Going industry-best odds for several players. For example, they are 66/1 for Samsonova, who is otherwise now 40/1 & 33/1 in general

Talking points…

VAR is already a big talking point and the source of much frustration in football. It won’t be used in as many incidents in tennis. But the Video Assistant Referee failed at the first attempt here at the US Open. Failing to work in order to resolve a double-bounce call in last night’s match between Andy Murray and Corentin Moutet. The stadium kept showing the TV replay on the big screen in the stadium; coverage which cannot be used for official decisions. After a few awkward minutes of waiting around, the chair umpire ended up having to announce to the players and the crowd that the VAR system wasn’t working and the original (human eye) call would have to stand. Fault!

When is it time to call it a day? It’s not for me to say when a legend of the game like Venus Williams should hang up her racket. But there’s certainly a discussion to be had about whether an ailing 43-year-old should be given a Wildcard into one of the biggest tournaments in the world. With the argument being that perhaps the valuable free pass into the main draw would be better suited going to an upcoming youngster, for example. Venus was thrashed 6-1, 6-1 yesterday. The two-time US Open champion has managed just 10 matches on the tour this year, losing 7 of them. Roger Federer always used to say that when he knew his body and game wasn’t able to compete for the top trophies any more, he’d step away. He stuck to that: after losing in straight sets against Hurkacz in the Wimbledon 2021 quarter finals, with the final set being a 6-0 whitewash – we never saw Roger at a Grand Slam or ATP Tour event again.

Talking of youngsters… There are three teenagers left in the women’s draw and through to the 2nd round. Linda Noskova (age 18) was a convincing 6-2, 6-1 winner yesterday, for one leg of our 3-out-of-5 match acca. While the opening match on the Arthur Ashe Stadium court today is 19-year-old Coco Gauff against 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva. Those two met at the French Open in May, with Gauff coming from behind to win 2-1. It could be another good battle today…

Outright Winner – WOMEN’S…

The winner of Gauff v Andreeva will face Elise Mertens or DANIELLE COLLINS. The latter is a player we’ve followed before at big prices as a Grand Slam dark horse. Most notably at the Australian Open 2021, where we backed the American ball-thumper at 66/1 & 50/1 during the tournament – rewarded with an Each Way payout as Collins went on to reach her first Major final.

Health issues have slowed her down. But discovering she had endometriosis and rheumatoid arthritis a year or two ago has helped Danielle put her tennis career into perspective. The 29-year-old now picks and chooses her tournaments. And for an American and former College player – they don’t come any bigger than the US Open…

Armed with a new coach this summer, Collins showed a glimpse of what might be to come, reaching the quarter finals at the prestigious WTA 1000 Montreal, and pushing world no.1 Iga Swiatek to three sets.

Always aggressive, always determined, if there’s ever a tournament and a situation where a player pushing 30 years old will be looking to give their all to try and break through to win a Grand Slam for the first time – it’s Collins here in NYC 2023…

Odds of 50/1, 66/1, 80/1, and 100/1 make the potential rewards worth the risk. Collins on a good day on her A-game is good enough to beat anyone. And as we’ve seen time and time again in the women’s Grand Slams in recent years – maiden Major winners at massive prices are more frequent than a casual observer might think.

  • Collins plays Elise Mertens today. Our player has beaten the Belgian 3 times in a row on hard courts. If she gets through that, Danielle will face Gauff or Andreeva in the next round. The world no.34 has already overpowered one teenage prospect this week, battering 18-year-old Linda Fruhvirtova 6-2, 6-0 in the 1st round

Match picks – Day 3…

Following on from yesterday’s discussion about how to play the Match Winner markets. Here are my price selections from today’s 32-match schedule…

Favourites to follow:

This 5-fold pays 5/1:

  • Christopher Eubanks to beat Benjamin Bonzi
  • Danielle Collins to beat Elise Mertens
  • Beatriz Haddad Maia to beat Taylor Townsend
  • Sara Sorribes Tormo to beat Xinyu Wang
  • Tommy Paul to beat Roman Safiullin

Underdogs for the upset:

And these two women can outperform their status as underdogs, both taking on opponents who are known to be very up and down with their performance levels:

  • Elina Avanesyan to beat Jelena Ostapenko @ 7/2
  • Bernarda Pera to beat Xiyu Wang @ 13/10


Ones to Watch picks – US Open:

See above for full details

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Danielle Collins @ 100/1 Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 80/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 66/1 Betfred, Boylesports, 50/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, SpreadEx Sports

Match Winner:

  • 5-fold acca: Eubanks, Collins, Haddad Maia, Sorribes Tormo, Paul to win @ 5/1+ (6.0+) William Hill, Bet365, Boylesports, BetVictor, Betway
  • Elina Avanesyan to beat Jelena Ostapenko @ 7/2 (4.5) William Hill, Boylesports, BetVictor, Betway, 10/3 (4.33) Bet365, Skybet
  • Bernarda Pera to beat Xiyu Wang @ 13/10 (2.3) William Hill, Bet365, BetVictor, 5/4 (2.25) Boylesports, Betway, 6/5 (2.2) Skybet


Play starts from 4pm.

You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with the likes of Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back by 11am Thursday with your Day 4 email.

  • You can view every email in the archive on our members-only website here

Want to get in touch? Email me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch