Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023
US Open Day 2: Match picks - and a 66/1 shot...
Tuesday 29th August 2023
Welcome to your US Open 2023 Daily Service - Day 2. Play starts in New York at 4pm, UK time…
Good morning. It looks like the tennis is in safe hands with Sky Sports.
After a five-year stint on Amazon Prime Video, the US Open has returned to Sky. In the interim, it’s become standard to be able to offer all-court coverage. With main stadium courts getting commentary throughout, and the smaller courts getting live streams.
I wasn’t sure how Sky were going to do it. But after a bit of faffing about on various apps on my phone – I realised that you can get the all-court coverage on your TV (if you’ve got Sky Sports, that is) via a stack of ‘pop-up’ channels that Sky have added.
So it was then, that I sat through most of our pick Belinda Bencic’s 1st round match on Bank Holiday Monday afternoon, as a no-commentary live feed from Court 7. In case you’re wondering: yes, I do like to do my own commentary out loud. I don’t know why my wife left the room…
On the betting front, Bencic huffed and puffed a bit to get over the line in set two, but ultimately it was a routine 2-0, 1st-round win for our US Open women’s outsider pick. Backed at top prices of 100/1 or 80/1 Outright in yesterday’s Day 1 email, and 66/1 To Reach the Final. Belinda is still available at a standout 80/1 this morning with 10Bet and 75/1 with Sporting Index Fixed Odds. With Bet365 and Boylesports offering an attractive 50/1 To Reach the Final – a price which beats the 1/2 odds Each Way terms in the Outright Winner market in this case.
In the men’s, our early-bird Ones to Watch selection Taylor Fritz was a convincing 3-0 winner in his opener. After suffering a shock defeat in the 1st round 12 months ago, the American no.1 got a monkey off his back there. Fritz is still available I write at 80/1 Each Way with Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 66/1 Skybet and 60/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. But the likes of Bet365 and SpreadEx are now going 28/1 for Taylor…
The first Seeds tumble…
Across the men’s & women’s singles, there were 64 matches played on Monday. With the 1st round due to be completed today, there are another 64 on the Day 2 schedule…
The US Open has a history of producing shocks and upsets. And that was the case from the get-go yesterday. With a few high-profile names sent packing early on, and a few big prices to boot in the Match Winner betting…
Men’s world no.4 Holger Rune crashed out. Along with three other Seeds – Sebastian Korda, Lorenzo Musetti, and Alexander Bublik. With the prices for the upsets there including 5/1 for world no.63 Roberto Carballes Baena against Rune, and 6/1 for no.171 Titouan Droguet to beat no.18 Musetti.
In the women’s, world no.8 Maria Sakkari was one of four seeds to go on Day 1, with the Greek player knocked out by world no.71 Rebeka Masarova at 3/1. With fellow seed Veronika Kudermetova (16) also falling at the very first hurdle in straight sets to a 3/1 underdog, defeated by no.73 Bernarda Pera.
The message there being: look out for surprises in New York.
As outlined in last week’s pre-tournament prep and analysis for the Outright Winner betting. There is an intriguing recent history of big-odds results occurring at the US Open, and especially in the women’s Grand Slams in general. Read more on the two links below from the email archive on your members-only Ones to Watch website:
8 of the last 16 US Open champions tick this box >>
Of course, outsider betting is not a case of simply opposing all short-prices favourites and backing all lower-ranked opponents…
Many, many odds-on players came through their 1st-round encounters with ease on Day 1. But if you’d had a double on Iga Swiatek and Novak Djokovic to win their respective matches, for example, then a £10 stake would’ve made you just 30 pence profit…
Swiatek was 1/50 (1.02).
Djokovic was 1/100 (1.01).
The trick then, is to back favourites when there still looks to be some credit in their price. And to get behind the underdogs when the lesser-known player looks underrated, and/ or the higher-ranked name looks vulnerable…
Value is a slippery word in betting, often thrown about without much mathematical thinking behind it. Betting is, after all, a matter of opinions if nothing else. And if my opinion is that a price is worth me recommending to you – then I will do so in these daily US Open emails…
Match picks for Day 2…
With the above in mind, we can split today’s picks from the 64-match order of play into two distinct categories – favourites worth following, and underdogs capable of upsets…
Favourites worth following…
Men:
Max Purcell to beat Christoper O’Connell @ 9/20 (1.45)
All-Australian clash, so could be tricky. But Purcell is younger, higher-ranked, and arrives here in much the better form this summer – displaying some exciting serve & volley tennis. Max won their most recent meeting, too.
John Isner to beat Facundo Diaz Acosta @ 2/5 (1.4)
Veteran Isner is set to retire after the US Open. The father of four won’t want to go out in the 1st round. John’s big serve has won him plenty of matches over the years, and he can draw on that today – with the crowd guaranteed to be roaring him on.
Stan Wawrinka to beat Yoshihito Nishioka @ 8/15 (1.53)
Stan the man is also getting on a bit now. The former US Open champion knows how to dig in and come through a tricky 1st-round tie. Japanese left-hander Nishioka has talent, but struggles to fulfil it (and stay fit). Wawrinka will also have the crowd on his side here, and can be relied upon to draw on all his experience should the scoreboard get complicated.
Women:
Linda Noskova to beat Madison Brengle @ 2/5 (1.4)
We’re taking on an American veteran in this one, with 33-year-old Brengle facing a tough challenge against teenage Czech rising star Noskova. The 18-year-old arrives in NYC with 10 out of 14 wins on outdoor hard courts since Wimbledon, and at a career-best ranking of no.41. She is tipped to do big things in the years to come.
Donna Vekic to beat Sachia Vickery @ 2/7 (1.29)
Opposing another American woman here. Vickery battled through the US Open qualifying rounds last week with two 2-1 wins, and then benefitted from an injury retirement. Vekic holds a much higher career status and ranking, and is a former quarter-finalist here at Flushing Meadows. I’d expect the Croatian’s class to tell today, even if Donna doesn’t find her top level.
Underdogs capable of upsets…
One that catches my eye today is upcoming Russian 22-year-old Alexander Shevchenko to beat Cameron Norrie. With underdog prices of 7/2 (4.5) and 10/3 (4.33) available…
Shevchenko is up to a career high of no.83 in the world. And I’d say he has the game to go higher. He’s still a bit raw around the edges, but will back himself to cause problems to his seeded opponent this afternoon…
Norrie is the 16th seed, but lands in New York on a very poor run of form by his standards. The Brit has lost 3 out of 3 matches on hard courts since going out in round 2 at Wimbledon this summer. Cam is a fierce competitor and a great professional, but he can get frustrated when he’s not playing at his desired level. With the pressure on the out-of-form higher-ranked player here, I’d rather back the young upstart at an attractive price.
Outright Winner - WOMEN’S…
Last but not least for today – another name to add to our women’s Outright Winner book at big prices…
ELINA SVITOLINA plays in the 1st round today, and is a heavy odds-on favourite to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam. Svitolina has been a bit of a surprise package since returning to the tour after having a baby. The Ukrainian is also playing for more than family, too. Her pride and passion has won her plenty of admirers and followers this summer. But it’s Elina’s performances on court that make the Ukrainian the bet here…
The 28-year-old former world no.3 has climbed back up to no.26, on the back of impressive runs to the French Open quarter finals – and then the Wimbledon semis. With a first WTA title since becoming a mother also under her belt this year, Svitolina has looked physically in great shape – and with added maturity and grit to her match-play, too.
Prior to going on maternity leave, Svitolina had threatened at the Majors – frequently getting to week two at the Grand Slams, without ever really looking like going all the way. There’s a steeliness to her this summer though. And considering she made the US Open semi final in 2019, and also the quarter finals in 2021. Elina is One to Watch as a 66/1 and 50/1 outsider this fortnight.
Another factor that could play into Svitolina’s hands… long regarded as one of the best defenders on the tour, these new heavier US Open women’s balls could see a skilled get-the-ball-back merchant like Elina do well. And with added attacking aggression making a big difference to her game in 2023, the Ukrainian might just put a big headline-making run together here in New York…
_________________________________________________
Ones to Watch picks - US Open:
See above for full details
Match Winner:
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
_________________________________________________
Play starts from 4pm.
The US Open is being shown live on Sky Sports.
I’ll be back by 11am Wednesday with your Day 3 email…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone