Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023
US Open Day 1: Outright picks at 16/1 and 100/1...
Monday 28th August 2023
Welcome to your US Open 2023 Daily Service - Day 1. Play starts in New York at 4pm, UK time…
We have a big two weeks in store, as we head to Flushing Meadows, NYC for the final Major of the season…
Last week’s research set the stall out for what to look for in the Outright Winner market when it comes to our business of rooting out big-priced underdogs…
Here at Ones to Watch, we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. The evidence for doing so here at the US Open was underlined in my two pieces of pre-tournament analysis…
8 of the last 16 US Open champions tick this box >>
Some key takeaways from those two sets of numbers:
The last 3 men’s US Open champions have all been first-time Grand Slam winners, at odds of 5/1, 4/1, and 9/1. While 5 of the last 8 women’s winners have ticked that maiden Major box - at average odds of 80/1…
5 of the last 12 women’s Grand Slams have been won by a 100/1+ outsider. With a total of 9 finalists going off at triple-figure odds in that period…
Let’s get down to business…
Here are my Day 1 selections:
Outright Winner - MEN’S…
We’ve got two men already in the book this year. With Taylor Fritz (read more here), and Hubert Hurkacz (here) both backed early doors at big prices.
Unlike the women’s tournament, which is almost universally wide-open based on recent events. The men’s title contenders have to be given the utmost respect…
The bookies make a Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic final just 15/8 (2.88). Plenty of pundits will go for that. But it’s not an exciting price at all. And I’m sure you didn’t sign up to this service just for me to tell you that the world no.1 might play the world no.2 in the final…
Considering the recent trend for first-time Major winners emerging here in New York at the last Grand Slam of the season. A young man to follow has to be long-term Ones to Watch name, JANNIK SINNER…
The 22-year-old Italian stands at a career-high no.6 in the rankings right now. And this summer, young Jannik has made a big mental breakthrough, winning a first ATP Masters 1000 title, on hard courts in Toronto. A Masters win is the highest level on tour, barring the four Grand Slams.
Sinner has been knocking on the door for some time now. The next step is to make the move up to a Major final. At Wimbledon, he made the quarter finals in 2022, and followed it up by reaching a first semi final this year…
Here at the US Open, young Jannik got to the Last 16 in 2021 - and then went one round better in 2022, progressing to the quarter finals. He’s also made the quarters at both the Australian Open and French Open, too. The message being: this guy is improving, and getting closer to the top.
On hard courts, Sinner’s clean hitting and penetrating groundstrokes can do plenty of damage. As well as winning Toronto this season, the softly-spoken Italian has made the final at Indian Wells, and semis at the Miami Open - both big, ATP 1000 Masters events.
Sinner is 18-5 on hard courts in 2023; a 78% match win-rate. If we include indoor hard court form in that figure (7-1), then his match win-loss ratio climbs to an ominously good 80%.
Yes, he may well have to get past Alcaraz in the quarter finals. Last season, these two youngsters met at the same stage in what turned out to be the match of the tournament, with the Spaniard saving a match point against Jannik - and then going all the way to take the trophy. Rather than go all in on Alcaraz at 2/1 or shorter here. I’m willing to trust in Sinner’s credentials and potential, with 16/1 and 14/1 available.
Outright Winner - WOMEN’S…
In the women’s, we’re dealing with a ‘Big Three’ lately. With world no.1 Iga Swiatek the reigning champion and 5/2 (3.5) favourite. Followed by Aryna Sabalenka at 5/1 at best. And Elena Rybakina at 9/1.
As those figures from recent years show - five 100/1+ winners from the last dozen Majors - the women’s Grand Slam betting has to be approached from an anything-can-happen standpoint. And that fits exactly with what we do here at Ones to Watch…
Add in the fact that 10 of the last 14 women’s Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist who went off at Day 1 prices of 33/1+. With 17 of the last 31 ‘Slams seeing a first-time Major winner. And we have to be backing some outsiders here in the Big Apple…
We’ve followed BELINDA BENCIC in the Majors at big odds before. As well as at the WTA 1000 events in Indian Wells and Montreal this season. The talented and likeable Swiss remains one of those names in the women’s field, yet to get to a Grand Slam final - but certainly good enough to do it. Just the kind of player we should be backing, then…
As reported before in this column, Belinda on a hard court is a serious contender. When she hits form, the former world no.4 can mix it with anyone. Currently ranked no.13, Belinda almost beat Swiatek at Wimbledon last month (had match point). And on hard courts, Bencic won the biggest trophy of her career, taking Gold at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.
Overall, seven of her nine senior singles titles have come on hard courts (indoors & out - and here it’s worth noting that the US Open has three courts with roofs on them, should the rain come).
Here at the US Open, Bencic has posted her best Grand Slam result. Reaching the semi final back in 2019, with a quarter final on her New York CV, too. Now 26 years of age, Belinda at 80/1 is one to watch here. Boylesports are 100/1.
A second name to get in the book from the off is our 100/1 outsider from last year, the big-serving, hard-hitting Russian dark horse - LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA…
The 24-year-old flies under the radar, much like our big-odds Wimbledon friend, Marketa Vondrousova. Samsonova is ranked no.15 in the world and has had a very good summer on her favoured hard courts. Reaching a maiden WTA 1000 final, in Montreal. Having made the semis in the States at the WTA 500 event in Washington before that. She also reached the WTA 500 Abu Dhabi final in February, beaten to the trophy by Bencic…
A difference in opinion with the bookies usually means there’s something to be said for taking our player at the biggest prices. A couple of mainstream firms including Bet365 and William Hill are 33/1 for Samsonova here. We can get as big as 66/1 and 50/1 elsewhere…
Liudmila is a player we’ve backed several times before. The signs this summer are that she may be ready for her best run yet at a Grand Slam.
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Ones to Watch picks - US Open:
See above for full details
Men’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Already in the book: Taylor Fritz and Hubert Hurkacz - see above.
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Note: The best price package on Belinda Bencic is to take 100/1 or 80/1 to Win Outright, along with Bet365’s 66/1 To Reach the Final. Otherwise: Each Way at the best prices.
Belinda Bencic @ 100/1 Boylesports, 80/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betfred
Liudmila Samsonova @ 66/1 Skybet, Boylesports, 55/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 Betfred, BetVictor
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Play starts from 4pm.
The US Open is being shown live on Sky Sports.
I’ll be back by 11am Tuesday with your Day 2 email. Including our first foray in the Match Winner markets…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone