Tennis Betting Advice - August 2023
US Open Day 4: All about the Czechs at 350/1...
Thursday 31st August 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 4. Play starts in New York at 4pm, UK time…
Dani’s heartbreaker…
A tough one for us yesterday, with 50/1+ American pick Danielle Collins knocked out – having had two match points for a straight-sets win.
No disrespect to opponent Elise Mertens, who finished the stronger. But I find results like that frustrating in a tournament like this; in other words, I could’ve seen Collins going deep into the business end of the US Open – but I very much doubt Mertens has the game the go all the way in Grand Slam singles. If I’m wrong, I’ll put my hands up. Mertens has now saved match points in both the 1st and 2nd rounds.
The Czech conveyor belt continues…
The Czech Republic has an amazing track record for producing tennis players. And the Czech conveyor belt shows no sign of slowing down…
In the men’s US Open this week, 17-year-old Jakub Mensik won again last night. Reaching the 3rd round on his Grand Slam debut. Having come through the qualifying rounds in New York last week, the teenage world no.206 is riding a five-match winning streak. Mensik takes on our pick Taylor Fritz tomorrow night.
But it’s the Czech ladies that we’re the most interested in right now…
One Day 5 of Wimbledon this summer, I talked about the impressive pool of women’s tennis talent in Czechia, and we got on Marie Bouzkova at 100/1+…
Czech tennis has long had an impressive conveyor-belt of women’s prospects. And these ladies seem to have the headstrong capabilities to reach for and deliver at Major finals. Petra Kvitova, Karolina Muchova, Marketa Vondrousova, Barbora Krejcikova, to name just four from recent seasons. Not to mention the new crop of Czech teenagers coming through, including the Fruhivirtova sisters, Linda and Brenda. And 18-year-old Linda Noskova…
As with Muchova, Marie Bouzkova is another quirky Czech player that I’ve been tracking for a few years now. Supremely talented, with a neat game, and an underrated first serve. And the hand skills and smarts to cause problems … With injuries being the only obvious obstacle to her progress…
And on Day 7, with Bouzkova set to face Marketa Vondrousova for a place in the Wimbledon quarter finals, we got on the latter at 40/1 or 33/1 – and she went on to win the trophy.
That was a sweet moment of redemption for me personally, as during the French Open in May, I’d wrestled with backing both Karolina Muchova (of the Czech Republic) and Maria Sakkari – who were playing each other in the very 1st round in Paris. I plumped for the Greek player, was proven wrong to do so – and Muchova went on to reach a maiden Major final, after going off at 100/1.
Today I’m presented with a similar if not identical situation in terms of backing a couple of players who may end up facing each other in the next few rounds, should they progress that far…
The justification for backing several players is of course the big prices that we go for with our Ones to Watch selections. At these odds, it really does ‘only take one’…
That being the case, rather than dither too much on the various intricacies and ifs, buts & maybes of the drawsheet. On this occasion, I’m going to put up my three Czech picks as Ones to Watch prospects for the women’s US Open title. All have the talent. And as we’ve seen at the last two Grand Slams alone, these female Czech players seems to have a knack of staying headstrong on the big occasion…
We’ll start with the aforementioned MARKETA VONDROUSOVA. The Wimbledon champ is available at 22/1 and 20/1 for the US Open, having gone off at best prices of 28/1 and 25/1 on Day 1. While some firms opened at shorter odds than those on offer today. The current prices are fair enough considering 12 of the 32 women’s Seeds have already been knocked out, with half of the 2nd round matches still to play today.
The enigmatic left-hander came through the 1st round with flying colours this week, winning 6-3, 6-0. Today Marketa takes on Martina Trevisan, with the Italian likely to be a little under par having played out an epic three-set scrap in the heat in round 1. The Czech player is a heavy favourite to win that match, and rightly so in my opinion.
After that, the 24-year-old, new world no.9 looks on paper to have a very winnable route through to the quarter finals, sitting as she does in the 3rd Quarter of the draw – where the bookies make her 10/3 (4.33) second favourite behind American hope Jessica Pegula. You may remember Vondrousova beat Pegula in the quarter finals at Wimbledon in July – and the US player has now lost 6 out of 6 Grand Slam quarter finals.
Further down this bottom half of the women’s draw, which avoids world no.1, reigning US Open champ and bookies’ favourite Iga Swiatek (another Czech, Karolina Muchova is in Swiatek’s path to the final – with the French Open runner-up trading at 12/1 – 18/1 in general right now). There are two other Czech names I want to get behind – and these are both available at massive, triple-figures prices. Meaning we can justifiably get behind both, in the knowledge that should they both win today, they’ll face each other for a place in the Last 16…
MARIE BOUZKOVA has been on the Ones to Watch radar for some time. As well as getting outsider support from us at as big as 250/1 at Wimbledon this year. The 25-year-old world no.31 has featured in our other Grand Slam underdog bets before, including at odds of 150/1 here in New York this time last year.
Marie won her opening match in straight sets this week, and is the market favourite to beat Croatia’s Petra Martic today.
Bouzkova hardly gets any column inches, but she has a bit of the same ‘something about her’ talent that we’ve seen rise to the fore in the likes of Muchova and Vondrousova recently. She’s flattered to deceive at the Majors thus far, barring a Wimbledon quarter final in 2022 – but as we’ve seen so many times in women’s events lately, all that can change at any time…
On the Czech youngster front, teenager LINDA NOSKOVA is every inch a Ones to Watch name. She won the French Open Girls’ title in 2021. Now very much a contender on the senior tour, the 18-year-old reached a maiden WTA final in January, finishing runner-up at the 500-grade hard-court event in Adelaide. Before doing the same again this month and making the final at the WTA 250 event on hard courts on home territory in Prague. It looks like it won’t be long until Linda adds to the six titles she’s scooped up on the lower-tier circuit.
Noskova’s rise up the rankings has all been in the right direction. Ending 2020 at no.1,027 in the world, the young teenager finished 2021 at no.317. Before leaping to no.91 last year. With the 18-year-old now sitting at a career-best no.41…
Since Wimbledon this summer, Linda has won 11 out of 15 matches on outdoor hard courts, including her 1st-round victory this week in New York.
Noskova is the underdog today against world no.5 Ons Jabeur. But it’s very much worth noting that Noskova beat Jabeur by two sets to one in their sole previous meeting, in the semi finals at Adelaide at the start of the season. Jabeur has since lost a third Grand Slam final, having suffered heartbreak (and a bad attack of nerves) not only twice at Wimbledon, but also beaten in the final here at the US Open last year. Add in the fact that the Tunisian looked to be suffering with the heat/ flu symptoms/ possible injury issues in her unconvincing 1st-round win in New York this week. And we have a case for getting behind the teenager today…
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Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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Play starts from 4pm.
You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with the likes of Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back by 11am Friday with your Day 5 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone