Tennis Betting Advice - July 2023
Wimbledon Day 5: The American Dream at 100/1...
Friday 7th July 2023
Welcome to your Wimbledon 2023 Daily Service - Day 5…
Yesterday was a mixed bag of close calls and heartbreak, hope and heroics…
On the bad news front, Taylor Fritz lost from two sets up in the 2nd round. And Karolina Muchova slipped and hurt herself, going out in three sets in the 1st round. Maybe her recent run to the French Open final had also taken its toll on Muchova. She’s said that grass is her favoured surface, so let’s keep the talented (but injury-prone) Czech in mind for Wimbledon next year.
Our two match-winner accas this week ended with ever-tantalising tallies: five out of seven from yesterday’s 9/1 picks, and six out of seven from our 7/1 women’s combo.
On the upside, in the tournament Outright Winner book, the Wimbledon dream remains alive and kicking for four of our Ones to Watch Each Way selections…
With 100/1 shot Anastasia Potapova through to the 3rd round on the back of two 2-0 wins.
And our 50/1 man Andy Murray taking a two-sets-to-one lead through to this afternoon to complete his 2nd-round match with Stefanos Tsitsipas, after a stirring performance under the roof on Centre Court last night.
Our pre-tournament 25/1 women’s pick Petra Kvitova plays in the 2nd round today, first up on Court 2 at 11am.
And yesterday’s 50/1 or 40/1 dark-horse pick Ekaterina Alexandrova’s 2nd round match is the opening fixture on Court 17 this morning. The Russian is now trading in the Outright Winner market at 33/1 Each Way with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports.
I said the other day that I’ve had my eye on a few more players in the notebook, at long-shot prices. And yesterday we talked about a bit of an against-the-grain theme with a couple of Russians on our women’s Outright Winner list (Potapova, Alexandrova)...
With Wimbledon about to head into the middle weekend, today’s the day to make our move with a couple more huge-odds Ones to Watch outsiders.
Remember, at the underdog prices we go for: it only takes one…
The American Dream…
Backing an American man for Wimbledon is also an off-kilter angle these days. The last US male to lift the men’s singles trophy at SW19 was Pete Sampras in 2000. The last finalist was Andy Roddick in 2009. Taylor Fritz fell away for us yesterday. But I’ve been tracking another American star, Frances Tiafoe…
After winning a first ATP grass-court title at Stuttgart last month, ‘Big Foe’ is up to a career-high ranking of no.10 in the world. Being a Top 10 player is a big deal for the 25-year-old from Maryland. And with confidence and career concentration already growing after reaching a maiden Grand Slam semi-final at the US Open last summer, Frances is starting to look like a Major contender, outside of the more obvious and shorter-price names at the top of the men’s betting.
Netflix’s Break Point series is a bit soapy for me, but the most interesting episode in the new series was the one featuring Tiafoe. I’d heard about the positive, professional impact that coach Wayne Ferreira was having on the 25-year-old. And the documentary showed some encouraging evidence of that.
In short: Tiafoe is growing up. Ready to take the sport seriously, while still keeping his trademark smile. And most importantly of all: really believing that he can win a Grand Slam. Let’s take odds of 100/1, 90/1 or 80/1 today. He went off at 80/1 at best and 66/1 in general on day one, and has won two out of two matches in straight sets since then.
In Frances’ section of the men’s draw, I also want to be on our 33/1 Paris Masters winner from the end of last season, Ones to Watch youngster Holger Rune. The Dane is a fast learner, and looking good in the early days here, with the 20-year-old winning his first Wimbledon match, having fallen at the first hurdle on his debut last year.
Holger’s match record on grass this season is 5-1, including a 2-0 win over Andy Murray at last week’s Wimbledon warm-up exhibition event at Hurlingham. Rune is available at 50/1 in general - again, that price is a good 10 points bigger than what he went off at when the draw was first made. Rune has the look of a youngster heading for the top. As ever, we want to be backing exciting youngsters like this while the odds are still in our favour.
And as for another off-the-mainstream-radar player, with quietly promising credentials in the women’s field…
I’m glad we left Veronika Kudermetova out of our Russian picks. She got knocked out in the 2nd round yesterday. As did Latvia’s Jelena Ostapenko, who I gave quite a few column inches to this week - but ultimately swerved as a betting prospect…
Czech tennis has long had an impressive conveyor-belt of women’s prospects. And these ladies seem to have the headstrong capabilities to reach for and deliver at Major finals. Kvitova, Muchova, Marketa Vondrousova, Barbora Krejcikova, to name just four from recent seasons. Not to mention the new crop of Czech teenagers coming through, including the Fruhivirtova sisters, Linda and Brenda. And 18-year-old Linda Noskova.
As with Muchova, Marie Bouzkova is another quirky Czech player that I’ve been tracking for a few years now. Supremely talented, with a neat game, and an underrated first serve. And the hand skills and smarts to cause problems on a grass court for many opponents. With injuries being the only obvious obstacle to her progress…
I thought I was going to end up kicking myself at Wimbledon last year, as Bouzkova impressed on her way to the quarter finals. Only stopped in three sets by eventual runner-up, Ons Jabeur. Marie has come out the blocks in week one here this year, reeling off a pair of fast 2-0 wins in the opening rounds.
After losing in the 1st round in both of her grass tournaments last month, the 24-year-old world no.33 is demonstrating what we often say about the women’s tour: a player can burst into dangerous form at any time…
Bouzkova takes on Caroline Garcia in the 3rd round today. And the head-to-head formbook could provide a good omen here. Bouzkova has won both her previous meetings with the Frenchwoman - and both on grass. Including in straight sets here at SW19 last July.
Let’s get Marie in the book at massive, rank-outsider Each Way prices of 150/1. With Boylesports even going 250/1. And we’ll take her as the match underdog to beat the talented but unreliable Garcia today, too.
The very best Outright Winner package for backing Bouzkova this morning is to take 250/1 Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places) with Boylesports, if you can get it. Or to split that stake two ways by backing her at 100/1 To Reach The Final with Bet365, and then Win Only for the trophy at the biggest, 100/1+ price you can get. With 150/1 Each Way elsewhere the general advice for our standard bet.
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Ones to Watch picks - Wimbledon:
See above for full details
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Match Winner:
Men’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Frances Tiafoe @ 100/1 Skybet, 90/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, 80/1 BetVictor, Unibet, BetUK, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 66/1 Betfred, Boylesports
Holger Rune @ 50/1 Skybet, Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports, 40/1 William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, SpreadEx Sports, Betway
Match Winner:
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Play starts from 11am.
I’ll be back at 8am Saturday with your Day 6 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone