Tennis Betting Advice - August 2024
Ones to Watch in Canada at 28/1 and 33/1...
Monday 5th August 2024
Two of our 2024 stars were in the silverware again last week. Or to be precise: goldware…
January’s 33/1 Australian Open runner-up Qinwen Zheng won Gold in the Women’s Singles at the Paris Olympics (went off at 22/1).
Since we backed the fast-rising Chinese star at Wimbledon this summer, 21-year-old Zheng has gone on to win her next two tournaments: defending her title on clay at WTA Palermo last month, then landing a historic Singles Gold for China. Qinwen Zheng sits at a career-high of no.7 in the world. She was ranked no.15 when listed in our pre-season report.
While our 150/1 French Open runner-up Jasmine Paolini wasn’t able to follow-up for us and land 40/1 odds at the Olympic Games, the recent 66/1 Wimbledon finalist was nevertheless at it again, continuing her golden year… by winning Gold in the Women’s Doubles for Italy, alongside decorated clay-court veteran, Sara Errani.
Like Qinwen Zheng, 28-year-old Paolini is now also rocking a career-best ranking, with the Italian at no.5.
After the Olympic event on the Roland Garros clay, the tours now resume with the move to North American hard courts – and the build-up to the fourth and final Grand Slam of the season, the US Open in New York…
Many players will either be skipping ATP Montreal/ WTA Toronto this week – despite the National Bank Open (AKA the long-standing Rogers Cup) being a ‘Masters’ 1000 event, and one of the biggest on the calendar. Or arriving late in Canada, looking to fight off jet-lag and fatigue after competing at the Olympics in Paris. The tournament starts a day later than usual, to try and coax over as many big names as possible…
In terms of the men in Montreal, respective Paris Gold and Silver medal winners Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have unsurprisingly pulled out. Seemingly opening the door for reigning National Bank Open champion and current world no.1, Jannik Sinner, to defend his title. Sinner goes off as a big favourite in the betting, at odds of 6/4 (2.5) in general.
The women’s event in Toronto is likely to be hit by withdrawals, too. And as we’ve noted so many times in recent years, it feels like the women’s tour is never far from the next big shock result or surprise finalist. After Barbora Krejcikova won Wimbledon last month at 225/1, the statement remains: anything can happen…
The road to New York…
As I said in my most recent Notes from the tour, the next big question for a surging player like Paolini has to be, what price for the US Open? As I write this Monday lunchtime, Betfred make Jasmine a 40/1 shot for the Big Apple. With other firms around 28/1 in general.
Qinwen Zheng is 33s with Betfred and Bet365, and 28/1 – 25/1 in most other places.
I don’t think either of those prices are must-take right now. Considering that both women have just been performing to a very high level on clay, we can afford to wait and see how August is shaping up for them, with the transition to hard courts, different balls, and a change of time zones etc, heading to Canada and the United States.
Korda keeps it in the family…
Last week we collected a welcome winner from another of our Ones to Watch in 2024 names. With 8/1 Each Way pick, Sebastian Korda doing the business for us at ATP Washington.
The young American did well to come back from a set down in the final, against talented Italian prospect, Flavio Cobolli (Italian tennis is having a real ‘moment’ right now). Korda won the Washington final, 4-6, 6-2, 6-0. In doing so, Seb emulated his father Petr’s success in the U.S capital, back in 1992. Petr and Sebastian Korda become the first ever father-son winning combo on the ATP Tour.
I commented last week that 8/1 or 7/1 isn’t our usual Ones to Watch betting territory. But we play the markets as we see each tournament. Can’t be a 100/1-er ever week. And with last week’s other 7/1+ pick Ben Shelton reaching the semi final, we weren’t far off the perfect final in terms of Win and Each Way payouts. As it was, Korda got us nicely back to winning ways.
Confidence quest…
Seb will be looking to take that Washington form across the border to Montreal this week. Korda is 33/1 for what would be the biggest title of the 24-year-old's career. Washington last week was a substantial one, at ATP 500 grade. The National Bank Open in Canada is 1000-grade. Only the four Majors are bigger. Korda has a tough draw on paper this week though, and he’s not a standout for me from day one.
We should also acknowledge that Korda got a bit lucky en-route to the Washington final. In his Round of 16 match against Thanassi Kokkinakis, the American trailed by a set and a break, and Kokkinakis had two match points… but fitness issues once again took down the Australian, with Kokkinakis cramping badly on court, before retiring and handing the victory to our man Seb.
After that lucky break, Korda took matters into his own hands, with impressive performances in the quarter final, semi final, and then the championship match last night. I stayed up late to watch that Washington final, and Korda played some great attacking tennis. That’s what he needs to be doing, moving forward from here: keep the throttle down, don’t back off. When caution creeps in, that’s when Korda can crumble. He’s now got two ATP titles – but Seb has lost six other finals. Still, a new best ranking of no.18 in the world should help with confidence.
Another former Ones to Watch youngster has had similar issues closing out the biggest matches. No-one is doubting Felix Auger-Aliassime’s talent. But the 23-year-old Canadian, who is ranked no.19, lost the bronze-medal match in Paris last week. And has tasted defeat in 10 out of 15 finals on the ATP Tour overall. Felix is set to be the 14th seed here in Montreal this week, should he play. He’ll be keen to perform at home in Canada, of course. But those Olympic efforts may have taken a toll. Let’s see what transpires in the next few days.
After all that, then, here are my first-up picks for this week’s two big tournaments – the men in Montreal, and the women in Toronto…
Play starts Tuesday afternoon, from 4pm, UK time. Sky Sports Tennis will have comprehensive live coverage, including multiple match selection options on the red button interactive service.
Casper and Tommy…
In the opposite side of the ATP Montreal draw to top seed Sinner, our old pal Casper Ruud is one who catches my eye. The 25-year-old Norwegian has featured plenty of times for us before at big prices; we were on Casper at 66/1 in 2022 when he landed us an Each Way payout at the US Open. Ruud proved then that he’s so much more than a clay-court specialist. You don’t get to be consistently camped inside the world’s Top 10 these days without having all-court credentials.
Ruud has reached two finals on outdoor hard courts already this season (both in Mexico). Last time the men’s National Bank Open was played here in Montreal, in 2022– the event alternates with the women and Toronto – Casper made the semi finals.
Granted, he was one of the many names to also compete in the Olympics last time out. But Casper is known as one of the fittest guys on the tour. And I like his price here, with odds of 28/1+ on the table. This is a Top 10 player, former world no.2, who has played in two Masters finals and three Grand Slam finals.
As similar odds, world no.12 Tommy Paul is also one to watch. The American has been a frequent lowkey, outsider pick for us – as is his style. Under his baseball cap and no-thrills body language, Tommy boasts a great game, and some seriously good consistency. He’s got to the quarter finals or better in nine out of 15 tournaments entered this year.
Paul has beaten Sinner before, and if the Italian turns up in any way rusty or vulnerable having lost at Wimbledon and then sat out the Olympics due to fitness concerns – then Tommy is a quality underdog to have on your side in this section of the Montreal draw.
Emma and Bianca…
At WTA Toronto, two I like at outsider prices in this potentially open field are Emma Navarro at 20/1, and Bianca Andreescu at 33/1…
American 23-year-old Navarro is a bit like Tommy Paul, understated but classy – with steely determination, minus any theatrics. Emma is having a breakthrough year on the tour, and has already proved that she can mix it with the best. She’s up to no.15 in the world, and has won a first WTA title in 2024 (Hobart, hard courts). Semi finals in Auckland and San Diego, as well as a quarter final at the 1000-grade Indian Wells, show that Navarro can be very tough to beat on hard courts.
Canadian Andreescu, in comparison, was once called a ‘drama queen’ by an opponent. And the confident youngster – still only 24, despite winning the US Open and all four of her career titles back in 2019 – is once again on the injury-comeback trail. One of those four hard-court trophy wins came here in Toronto. And with momentum, the home crowd, and maybe a few three-set rollercoasters thrown in, Bianca could spring a surprise in this 2024 edition.
Ability is never in question. She has the game. It’s all about whether her body can hold up. A current lowly ranking of no.175 is solely down to the injury layoffs. Andreescu is a former world no.4, a proven bigtime player – and on her day, as good as anyone. She believes it, too….
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Montreal – National Bank Open presented by Rogers
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Still to price up at time of writing: Bet365, Skybet, Unibet, Boylesports, 888 Sport.
WTA Montreal – National Bank Open presented by Rogers
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Still to price up at time of writing: Skybet, 888 Sport.
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Play starts from Tuesday afternoon (4pm UK time), and these two Canadian tournaments run all week – with the finals scheduled for next Monday. I’ll email again if any other players & prices catch the eye, as the rounds progress…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone