Tennis Betting Advice - August 2025
US Open 100/1 preview - and NEW match picks info...
Friday 22nd August 2025
The US Open starts on Sunday, and I’ve got lots to tell you about today…
NEW match picks info…
The first thing you need to do - if you haven’t done so already - is to sign up to Follow the Ones to Watch WhatsApp channel here >>.
That’s because I’ll be using WhatsApp to send US Open match picks to you.
This follows on from the member survey we did after the SMS text message tips at Wimbledon, to which the overwhelming response was that you would like to receive additional FREE match tips, and via a free platform such as WhatsApp.
These new match picks, for example Player A to beat Player B, are an extra part of your Ones to Watch service. Allowing us to target the daily matches, when an opportunity presents itself, in a quick and simple manner
Supplementary to the main Ones to Watch content and mission, where we back appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices in the tournament Outright Winner markets. That long-form advice will continue to land in your inbox by email, as always
Note: the US Open match picks will also be posted on your members-only website here, by 12 noon on any given day. Log-in with your email address and password. You’ll find the US Open Match Picks tab on the ‘More’ drop-down menu:
100/1 Eala already in the book…
When it comes to our tournament Outright bets, we’ve already got one youngster in the book at 100/1 Each Way…
ALEXANDRA EALA was our early-bird selection, first advised back on 14th July. You can read the original article here.
The 20-year-old from the Philippines is currently ranked no.70 in the world. Now that the US Open 2025 women’s draw has been made (it took place yesterday in New York), we can still get triple figures for this exciting and driven left-hander.
Men’s event…
There’s a new era of domination in the men’s game. Whether it lasts as long as the 20-year reign of Federer, Nadal & Djokovic remains to be seen. But right now, world no.1 Jannik Sinner and no.2 Carlos Alcaraz are the new bosses…
Sinner has reached the last four Grand Slam finals, winning three of them. Alcaraz has appeared in four of the last six ‘Slam finals, lifting the trophy three times. The Italian and the Spaniard have faced-off in each of the last two Major finals, as well as in both the Cincinnati Masters and Rome Masters title matches this season.
In the pre-tournament US Open 2025 men’s betting, the bookies have Sinner as the 11/10 (2.1) favourite, with Alcaraz not far behind, at 15/8 (2.88) and 7/4 (2.75). After those two, it’s Novak Djokovic at 16/1, and everyone else can be backed at 20/1 or much bigger.
Twelve months ago, we got as big as 90/1 for Ben Shelton at the US Open 2024. The 22-year-old is now a Top 10 player (no.6), and goes off at 25/1 - 20/1 this time.
Likewise, fellow American, Taylor Fritz. We had Fritz at 66/1 last summer, and he gave us a half-the-odds Each Way payout for finishing runner-up to Sinner in the final. This weekend, world no.4 Fritz starts at 28/1.
As those 2024 - 2025 price comparisons indicate, we want to be on the outsiders and newcomers to the big stage, when the odds are really in our favour…
There’s only one young man I want to be on as a Ones to Watch longshot with potential before a ball is hit here in the Big Apple this coming fortnight, and that’s teenager JAKUB MENSIK.
The 19-year-old Czech featured prominently in this season’s Ones to Watch in 2025 Report. He’s since won the Miami Open at 250/1. And is now ranked at a career-best no.16 in the world.
Mensik is seeded here at the US Open, and if he stays fit, the powerful and talented young gun has the tools - and mindset - to put together a menacing outsider run. We want to be on Jakub at 100/1+ for the Grand Slams, while we still can.
Women’s event…
Once again, a women’s Major looks a lot more wide-open than the men’s…
While the favourites Iga Swiatek (5/2), Aryna Sabalenka (3/1), and Coco Gauff (9/1) all command respect as multiple Grand Slam champions, I’m not going to be taking single-figure odds for anybody here…
Coming as it does at the end of a packed and gruelling spring & summer calendar for the top players, the US Open has a history of producing shocks and surprises…
For example, Emma Raducanu was a 100/1 upset here in 2021 (she’s 33/1 this time). Leylah Fernandez was 500/1 runner-up that year (she’s 100/1+ again with most firms).
Back in 2017, we were on Sloane Stephens for her winning 40/1 run. The 2018 champion Naomi Osaka was 50/1. And the 2019 winner was another Ones to Watch listed youngster at the time; Bianca Andreescu started that breakout season as a relatively unknown 100/1 rank outsider.
More recently, it’s worth noting that each of the last four women’s Grand Slam finals have featured an American. Amanda Anisimova was a 33/1 Wimbledon finalist this summer, Coco Gauff won the French Open at 5/1, Madison Keys was our big 100/1 winner at the Australian Open in January, and 16/1 Jessica Pegula was runner-up here at Flushing Meadows last year. At 33/1, Pegula is the biggest price of that quartet for the US Open.
Looking at the 2025 draw and prices, I want to add another outsider today to go alongside our 100/1 pick on 20-year-old Alexandra Eala…
LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA has featured for us before - always as a big-odds, underdog prospect. The flat-hitting Russian was most recently a Wimbledon quarter-finalist for us this July. The 26-year-old world no.19 has reached the US Open last 16 (that’s week two, the match before the quarter finals), in two of her last three visits to New York. Including when carrying our cash at fancy prices…
Odds of 150/1 and 100/1 are on the table before a ball is hit.
While some other names I’m interested in, such as Ones to Watch regular and fellow Russian, 21-year-old Diana Shnaider (100/1) are still involved at other tournaments going into this weekend. And other players are still in action in the qualifying rounds. Samsonova going out in the quarter finals at WTA Cleveland this week doesn’t bother me. In fact, it might even work out well that she had a break and the chance to prepare for New York…
We’ll back other players if the prices suit next week, with your next Outright Winner email update scheduled for Tuesday.
PLUS - don’t forget to join ourWhatsApp channel to get additional match picks to your mobile phone for free (or check our website by 12 noon each day)
Hint! Enable the WhatsApp notifications on your phone, so you get an alert each time and don’t miss anything
Play starts on Sunday afternoon, from 4pm UK time.
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Ones to Watch picks - US Open 2025:
See above for full details
Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Already in the book: Alexandra Eala @ 100/1.
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P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone