Tennis Betting Advice - August 2025
US Open: American mission at 528/1...
Friday 29th August 2025
The 3rd round of the US Open starts this afternoon. The conditions have been a bit wild and windy so far - and the same could be said for our selections…
Playing the ginormous prices in the Outright Winner markets as we do, there’s always going to be a lot of debris in the storm…
We’ve seen our initial three 100/1+ picks fall at the wayside before the 3rd-round stage. But 80/1 Karolina Muchova is through, and as I alluded to in Tuesday’s email, she is in an open-looking part of the women’s draw…
At the Grand Slam tournaments, it’s not uncommon for us to back up to 10 - 12 players during the course of the fortnight, across the men’s & women’s combined. So far, we’ve had four. To put that in context, on day one, a total of 256 players were in the 1st round draws.
Heading into the weekend now, when things start to get serious in a Major competition like this. I want to make the following moves today, while we can still obtain some massively exciting odds…
Opportunity knocks at 100/1 and 80/1…
The 3rd Quarter of the women’s draw really appeals to me as the source of a breakthrough outsider run here:
We’re already on Muchova at 80/1 - 50/1, and the Czech can still be backed at 66/1 and 50/1 today.
The all-Czech match-up in the next round on Saturday is an intriguing one, with 29-year-old Muchova taking on highly-rated Ones to Watch youngster, LINDA NOSKOVA. Both women got a very positive write-up in my pre-season 2025 ‘Czech-list’ report.
Ordinarily I wouldn’t be firing several darts in the same section, but as I say, this part of the women’s draw really could be the place to find a big-odds runner. What’s more, the oft-injured Muchova had a three-set tussle on court last night, while 20-year-old world no.32 Noskova was granted a much easier passage though, after her opponent retired injured. Muchova was smiling in the on-court interview when she said she was tired, but you never know.
Having backed Noskova at big odds before - including as a 100/1 shot at last year’s Australian Open, where she beat Iga Swiatek, and reached a maiden Major quarter final. I want us to make sure we have the younger Czech on our side going into this weekend at the other hard-court Grand Slam, which is the US Open here in New York…
The key piece of the decision being price, as it should be: we can still get odds of 100/1 and 80/1. Decision made.
The same principles apply to MARTA KOSTYUK in this segment of the draw, who is available at the same eye-catching outsider prices…
The 23-year-old world no.28 has been a Ones to Watch regular since she was a teenager. The Ukrainian still plays with a lot of ‘stress’ in her game; for example, drawn into a three-set battle last night, and in the overall US Open 2025 stats, currently ranked Top 5 for both Most Aces and Most Double Faults. However, in recent times Marta has shown signs of maturity on court, channeling her frustrations into extra-powerful winning shots and lung-busting rallies.
Talking of double faults, Coco Gauff is right up there in that ugly department, despite bringing in a new serving coach at the last minute. The 2023 US Open champion continues to look like a wobbly favourite in my opinion. The world no.3 is around 9/1 for the trophy, and just 7/5 (2.4) at best to win the 3rd Quarter.
While Kostyuk, Muchova, and Noskova have no head-to-head form in the book between them. The Ukrainian has plenty of previous experience of running Gauff close, or better - they met four times last season, with Marta and Coco registering two wins apiece.
All things considered, adding Noskova and Kostyuk at massive prices is my recommendation today.
American Double…
One other angle I’ve got for us as we head into the weekend is a giant-odds Each Way Double in the men’s and women’s markets…
TAYLOR FRITZ was a runner-up here for us last year, in his debut Major final. And fellow Ones to Watch alumni AMANDA ANISIMOVA is on a revenge mission of her own, having reached a maiden Grand Slam final at Wimbledon this summer, only to be crippled by nerves and battered 6-0, 6-0 by Iga Swiatek.
Fritz looks to have a strong chance of going deep in his part of the men’s draw. And compatriot Anisimova - who says the US Open is her “favourite place to play” - has started very strong with a couple of 2-0 wins, and has bounced back well from Wimbledon, showing that her self-imposed mental-health break from the sport in 2023 has paid off.
You can get the very biggest Outright prices on this double with bookies offering the reduced place terms of 1/3 odds (AK Bets, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports). But it’s the Each Way part we’re most realistically gunning for here, and in that respect, the bookies quoted below with the standard 1/2 odds place terms for reaching the final go 22/1 or 20/1 for each player, offering a payout in excess of 100/1 if Fritz and Anisimova both get to the final…
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Ones to Watch picks - US Open 2025:
See above for full details
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way:
Linda Noskova @ 80/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Unibet, Betway (Each Way: 1/2 odds 1-2 places). Or 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook (Each Way: 1/3 odds 1-2 places)
Marta Kostyuk @ 100/1 Betfred, 80/1 Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway (Each Way: 1/2 odds 1-2 places). Or 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook (Each Way: 1/3 odds 1-2 places)
Men’s and Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way:
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P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone