Price Watch – Evidence for a 100/1 shot...

Wednesday 12th February 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

• New York & St Petersburg...
• Price Watch – Evidence for a 100/1 shot...
• 100/1 Rublev in the book...

News from Long Island...

We’ve had two Ones to Watch picks this week.

Reilly Opelka is yet to hit a ball at this week’s ATP New York Open. But his Outright Winner price has already been trimmed...

Our 10/1 pick is now as short as 11/2 (6.50), and 7/1 in general. That’s due to Kevin Anderson’s surprise defeat in the 1st round last night. The South African had been 9/1 to reclaim the title he won in New York in 2018. Anderson was in Opelka’s quarter of the draw.

Having had a 1st round bye, reigning champion Opelka starts his title defence in Long Island on Thursday. The bookies make the American a 4/6 (1.67) favourite to beat Japan’s Yoshihito Nishioka. This will be their first meeting on the tour.

Meanwhile, in Russia...

We have Elena Rybakina as an outsider selection at WTA St Petersburg.

Backed at 25/1 and 22/1 on Sunday night, and available at a general 20/1 on Monday morning, the 20-year-old was a convincing winner in the 1st round. Rybakina beat Katerina Siniakova, 6-3, 6-4.

Rybakina is in the 2nd round this evening, where she’ll face ‘Lucky Loser,’ Fiona Ferro. The 22-year-old French youngster originally lost in the qualifying rounds, but got a late entry into the main draw after Anastasija Sevastova withdrew.

If this formbook fact proves an accurate guide, then Rybakina can justify odds of 1/5 (1.20) to beat Ferro today:

Rybakina has an unblemished 5-0 record against French opponents on the WTA Tour.

In the Outright Winner market, a couple of bookies have knocked Rybakina’s 20/1+ price down to as short as 7/1. Let’s see if this exciting youngster can continue her progress up the rankings this week.

Price Watch – Evidence for a 100/1 shot...

Here at Ones to Watch, we’re aggressive in our approach to Outright Winner betting: we go after appealing outsiders at attractive odds.

This tactic was franked by our most recent success, with our 21-year-old Ones to Watch in 2020 player, Sofia Kenin, winning last month’s women’s Australian Open as a 50/1 shot.

• The women’s Grand Slams have now seen 11 different winners from the last 13 tournaments
  
  And eight of those have been players lifting a Major trophy for the first time

It’s not just the women’s Grand Slams that produce big odds winners and ‘surprise’ finalists.

As reported at the end of the last season, the numbers make a strong case for backing players at outsider prices, all year round.

The new 2020 tennis season is going to form in that respect…

So far this year, there have been a total of 13 tournaments across the men’s and women’s tours, along with both incarnations of the Australian Open.

From those 13 tournaments, the Outright Winner prices have included players taking trophies at pre-tournament odds of 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 50/1.

And players finishing runner-up for half-the-odds Each Way payouts at odds of: 20/1, 22/1, 28/1, 40/1, 50/1, 66/1, 80/1 and 100/1.

• Overall, 18 of the 26 finalists this season (69%) have been at odds of 10/1+

• That builds on and goes in line with 2019’s closing figure of 65%

• And 62% in 2018

The message is clear: outsider betting is the way to go.

We’ve already seen a couple of ‘big ones’ this season...

Sofia Kenin was the 50/1 headline maker at the Australian Open. 

Corentin Moutet was the biggest price recorded in January, finishing a 100/1 runner-up at ATP Doha. View all the prices here.

Those massive prices are no flash in the pan. 

They’re not an anomaly. 

Last season, there was an average of one 100/1+ shot making a final, every month.

So far in the early stages of the 2020 season, that trend is bang-on the average.

100/1 Rublev in the book...

I’m sticking my neck out this season and aiming to land one of those 100/1 shots...

We’ve got one 100/1 Each Way selection in the book as an ‘open’ bet.

Last month, Andrey Rublev was our early-bird pick for the men’s US Open 2020, which takes place at the start of September.

So far this season, the 22-year-old Russian has won two ATP titles, is up to a career-high No.15 in the world, and has an eye-catching match win-loss record of 12-1.

When we backed him on 16th January, Rublev was a top price 150/1 with Boylesports and 100/1 elsewhere.

The bookies’ US Open Outright Winner markets now have him as a general 66/1 shot. Bet365 have held firm at 100/1.

Get ready for March mayhem...

We’ll be adding to our speculative selections throughout the course of the year.

We might be going after a ‘big one’ next week. There are four tournaments on the calendar, with the men in Rio de Janeiro, Marseille and Delray Beach, and the women at a Premier event in Dubai.

And in March, we’re sure to be going after the big prices with the prestigious annual double-header at Indian Wells and the Miami Open...

• In 2019, Indian Wells produced a 100/1 women’s winner, and an 80/1 men’s winner. The Miami Open had a 28/1 women’s victor, and a 40/1 runner-up in the men’s event

• In 2018, the women’s Indian Wells final was contested by a 125/1 shot beating an 80/1 shot. And Miami saw a 66/1 winner in the women’s with a 50/1 runner-up, along with an 80/1 winner in the men’s

• In 2017, the Indian Wells women’s trophy match was decided by a 100/1 shot, with a 50/1 runner-up

• In 2016, there was a 100/1 runner-up at the women’s Miami Open

If this year‘s ‘fifth Majors’ at Indian Wells and Miami are anything like those last few years, then we’ll be in for a fun month of tennis in March.

I’ll be in touch again before next week’s tournaments. Remember, Sunday nights are when we take a look at the upcoming week’s Outright Winner prices and make our first player picks.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch