Tennis Betting Advice - January 2023

Australian Open: Day 3 - Name the Finalists at 30/1...

Tuesday 17th January 2023

Good afternoon, and welcome to Day 3 of your Australian Open 2023 daily service.

Play starts from midnight, UK time…

While the temperature has dropped below zero here, it’s a very different story over in Melbourne. With courts hitting 35 degrees+ on Tuesday, triggering the Heat Rule – and the suspension of play.

The box-office matches got played under a roof on each of the three stadium courts. But the upshot is there are several uncompleted matches from the Day 2 schedule to be resumed tonight, along with a batch that didn’t even get to start…

The latter category includes one of our big-price women’s Outright Winner picks, Beatriz Haddad Maia. The Brazilian can still be backed at 66/1 with Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. Catch up on yesterday’s email and Each Way advice here.

Our other two ladies did get out on court, and both got the job done. With Veronika Kudermetova winning 2-0. And 17-year-old Linda Fruhvirtova also winning her 1st round match in straight sets. We’re on Kudermetova as a Russian dark horse for the title at 25/1. And Linda F as a Czech teenage long-shot with plenty of Ones to Watch credentials at 100/1+. Again, catch up here.

  • Thanks to Stu for emailing in last night to remind me that sometimes a better Win/ Each Way combo can be constructed by using the ‘To Reach the Final’ market. As I write, for example, Bet365 have Linda Fruhvirtova at 150/1 Each Way in the standard tournament Outright Winner market (1/2 odds 1-2 places). But you could beat that total potential payout by taking the 150/1 Win Only, and then adding 125/1 for her To Reach the Final

Our two men’s picks are in action in the 2nd round tonight – Hubert Hurkacz and Denis Shapovalov. Both are still available at 100/1 each with the likes of Skybet, William Hill, and Boylesports – and Bet365 going 125/1 for Shapovalov.

Name the Finalists at 30/1…

In yesterday’s analysis we spoke about the ‘new name on the trophy’ factor in the women’s Grand Slams. Fifteen of the last 28 women’s Majors have seen a maiden winner. And with no Serena Williams, no Ash Barty, and no Naomi Osaka here at the Australian Open 2023 – the stage looks set once again for someone to break through and make the big step up at a Grand Slam…

We’ve got Kudermetova, Haddad Maia, and Fruhvirtova in the book already – all of whom fit into that potential first-time-champion category. And all at nice big Each Way prices.

At shorter prices in the Outright betting – around 8/1 each – two that I touched on yesterday as Ones to Watch alumni are Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka. And rather than take the single-digit prices in the Outright Winner market. My big-odds antenna is twitching for a more speculative but also more lucrative angle – and that’s backing these two to meet in the final…

Pegula is in the top half of the draw (2nd Quarter). Sabalenka is in the bottom half (4th Quarter). Both are priced at around 7/4 (2.75) each to win their respective Quarters – eg. to reach the semi final. I wouldn’t put you off a couple of singles there if that’s what you fancy. But the path I’m taking could lead to us to a 25/1+ final…

Both women have been edging closer to making it to a debut Grand Slam final:

  • Pegula is up to a career-high ranking of no.3 in the world. The 28-year-old has made back-to-back quarter finals here at the Australian Open – including when we backed the American as a 100/1 outsider in 2021. Neither of the opponents that stopped Jessica’s 2021 and 2022 Melbourne runs are here this time (Jennifer Brady and Ash Barty). With world no.1 and tournament favourite Iga Swiatek in the 1st Quarter of the draw, Pegula could face the Pole in a potential semi here…. Jess has won 5 matches in a row as I write, all in straight sets, including a 2-0 win over Iga earlier this month, that had the world no.1 in tears at the end of the match
  • Sabalenka is ranked no.5 in the world, and has been as high as no.2 before. The 24-year-old Belarusian has started 2023 in ominous form, winning 5 out of 5 matches on her favoured hard courts – and yet to drop a set. That early January streak includes a WTA title win in Adelaide, and then a dominant 6-1, 6-4 victory in the 1st round here last night. I watched that match, and after the serving troubles of last season, Aryna looked very good indeed… when it all clicks into place, she’s one of those intimidating, powerful sportspeople that can completely overwhelm their opponents. Sabalenka has come close to making the full breakthrough at a ‘Slam before – three times a semi-finalist at this level, including twice in a row now on hard courts at the US Open

This NAME THE FINALISTS market might not be to everyone’s taste, requiring two players to win through to the final in order to land the payout…

But I had PEGULA & SABALENKA in my notes last night before the revised markets were available to peruse – and when the prices came back online, my gut instinct was that 30/1, 28/1 & 25/1 looked good. I was expecting to see shorter.

If world no.1 and tournament fav Swiatek falters at any stage between now and the semis, then these two could be the names to make it to the championship match a week on Sunday.

  • There are plenty of other players all in with outsider chances at massive prices in this women’s field. I’m taking a watching brief on a handful; I want to watch as many minutes of action as I can over the next couple of days. I’ll keep you posted 

Day 3 – Match Winner Acca…

With a stacked match schedule across tonight and Wednesday morning, I’ve put together my first Match Winner acca of the tournament…

This 10-fold women’s match combo pays 5/1 (6.0) – 6/1 (7.0), depending on your bookie.  I recommend using BetVictor, William Hill, Betway, Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, for this reason.

Here’s the acca at odds of 6.68 with William Hill:

10-fold women's acca...

Those names again, to all win their respective matches tonight/ Wednesday AM:

Haddad Maia
Qinwen Zheng


Ones to Watch picks:

Australian Open 2023

Women’s – Name the Finalists:

  • Jessica Pegula & Aryna Sabalenka @ 30/1 BetVictor, 28/1 Bet365, 25/1 William Hill, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral

Women’s – Match Winners:

  • 10-fold Acca as listed above @ approx. 11/2 (6.5) William Hill – see above for more bookies


I’ll be back by 5pm Wednesday with your Day 4 email and advice…

You can email me during the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch