Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 5: What price for the world no.9?
Wednesday 17th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 5
Greetings from Australia…
Well. I’m in freezing Oxfordshire, actually. But my head - and sleep - is very much on Aussie time…
The opening few days of the first Grand Slam of the year have seen a few young teenagers grab the headlines.
Not one, not two, but three 16-year-olds made it to the women’s 2nd Round.
Brenda Fruhvirtova, and 2023 Girls’ champion Alina Korneeva, both went out this morning.
But one of the lead names from our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2024 Report is looking menacingly good, and is into the 3rd Round…
Mirra making waves…
Mirra Andreeva has started like a train in Melbourne. The talented Russian has won both her matches in straight sets. Including a statement, 6-0, 6-2 drubbing of Ons Jabeur last night.
Andreeva ended 2023 ranked no.57 in the world. She’s currently up to no.47. Jabeur is an established Top 10 player, ranked no.6 right now - and a three-time Grand Slam finalist.
While the experienced Tunisian was not at her best last night, by any stretch. It’s hard to take anything away from the exuberant, attacking tennis played by the 16-year-old - making her main-draw debut at the Australian Open.
As I said the other day, and before that in my pre-season report, the only downside with Mirra is from a betting stance - with the issue being the struggle to find genuine value in her prices…
Andreeva - who has yet to reach a semi final on the senior WTA Tour, yet alone a final at a Major. Started last weekend at 40/1 at best Down Under, with some firms as short as 22/1.
The teenage star is today trending as a ‘Most Popular’ bet on Oddschecker. Trading at 12/1 at best - with Bet365 trimming 14/1 down to 12s since lunchtime. And single figures with the likes of Skybet, at just 9/1.
Today’s short prices feel like ‘bandwagon’ bets to me. Mirra Andreeva is going to be popping up on the BBC news. People who don’t even watch tennis - let alone bet on it - are going to be throwing a few quid behind the teenager…
And this is where, in my line of work, anyway. You have to separate the media hype from the betting reality. I didn’t think Andreeva at 40/1 was a bet before the tournament. I certainly don’t like 9/1 now.
That’s not to say I don’t like Mirra’s tennis. In fact, I’m a fan. Her post-match, on-court interview last night showed a youthful charm and endearing sense of humour, too.
But when it comes to prices…
To lay down the cold, hard cash…
To put your neck on the line and publish your picks, as I do…
Well, I want greater odds for a teenager to win what would be her first trophy, on the biggest stage, at a Grand Slam…
It’s happened before…
In 2021, Emma Raducanu did it at the US Open. But Emma went off at 100/1 there - not 40/1. And I remember thinking even that triple-figure quote was a little tight - possibly due to some British bias being built-in by the bookies.
I also remember, during that US Open run, telling anyone who would listen, that Raducanu was a ‘bandwagon’ bet. That she was being overhyped. That the odds didn’t match the real chances.
Throughout that New York fortnight, I said the same bold statements over and again. To my dad on the phone. To my mate Dave at the pub. As the prices tumbled to 50/1… 25/1… 10/1…
Still, she steamrollered on…
And as you know, of course, Raducanu did indeed go on to lift the trophy that summer. One of the greatest rank-outsider stories and upsets in sporting history, full stop.
So, what do I know?
Well, for what it’s worth…
One teenager I did flag-up for maiden Grand Slam glory at 100/1 was Iga Swiatek, at the French Open 2020. And she’s now the world no.1.
The 100/1 teenager that no-one is talking about…
While the hype machine cranks up around young Mirra Andreeva this week…
There’s one name you won’t have been hearing so much about…
My early-bird pick for the 2024 women’s Australian Open was another teenager, Linda Noskova. The 19-year-old Czech is through to the 2nd Round, and plays again tonight…
Earlier this month, Noskova beat Andreeva in the WTA Brisbane quarter finals. In fact, Linda is the only player to have beaten Mirra so far this year…
Andreeva is 6-1 for match wins this season. Fellow teenager Noskova is 5-1, and will move level with the Russian’s 2024 stat, should the Czech book her place in the 3rd Round with another match win in Melbourne tonight
Like Andreeva, Noskova also featured in my Ones to Watch in 2024 Report, published in this column on 22nd December…
And before that, I also sent Linda out in these pages at a top-price of 150/1, on 12th October…
On Day 1 of the Australian Open last Saturday, I alerted you to the fact that Betfred were offering 300/1 for Noskova…
As I write this afternoon, the 19-year-old is available at 150/1 with LiveScoreBet, 125/1 with Skybet, and 100/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM.
We lost 100/1+ Caroline Wozniacki from our tournament book last night. But we have half-a-dozen big-odds outsiders on our side from Day 1…
Alongside teenager Linda Noskova, we have young prospects such as 20-year-old Holger Rune, and 21-year-olds Ben Shelton and Qinwen Zheng. Plus, 23-year-old Sebastian Korda, and 26-year-old Jelena Ostapenko.
I’ve got my eye on a few more underdog opportunities in the days to come, too. Including an 80/1 shot to add to our set today…
Because this is what we do at Ones to Watch:
We back appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices…
80/1 for the world no.9…
The man I like today as a speculative selection to make the big career breakthrough at a Grand Slam is a Top 10 player - and someone we’ve followed at big prices on numerous occasions in recent years…
Hubert Hurkacz @ 100/1 or 80/1
Hubi was a 100/1 and 80/1 pick for us here in Australia last year. We can get the same odds again today…
The Pole reached week two in Melbourne 12 months ago, bowing out in the Last 16 (4th Round).
We were also on the likeable big server at 200/1 in 2021 - when Hurkacz made the Wimbledon semi finals, in doing so becoming the last man to beat the great Roger Federer at a Grand Slam. We were one semi-final match win away from a triple-figure odds Each Way payout there.
The 6’5”, seven-time ATP title-winner has also won the ATP 1000 Masters event in Miami 2021 as a 100/1 shot. And last season, the 26-year-old won the Shanghai Masters at 40/1.
With 2023 being his best year yet on serve - Hurkacz finished in 1st place for Most Aces in the men’s game, and ranked no.1 in the official ATP Tour Stats Leaderboard for serving…
Hubi has started the Aussie Open 2024 in similar fashion: he banged down 24 aces in his straight-sets 1st Round win, and saved the only break-point that he faced. Winning 86% of his 1st Serve points.
If he can keep up that kind of serving, his weaker area of generation of break points from his opponents is not so much of a big concern. The Pole’s giant serve and heavy ground-strokes have seen him through literally dozens of tiebreak, 7-6 sets when things have remained close on the scoreboard.
Hurkacz won three of his five singles matches at the United Cup earlier this month, a joint ATP & WTA International team event, in which he played his part in a run to the final for Poland. That kind of bigtime event can help propel a player’s confidence, self-belief, and mental state - ready for a charge at a maiden Grand Slam title…
What’s more, in Hurkacz’s side of the draw - which is the opposite half to title favourite Novak Djokovic. Hubi has an encouraging 4-2 career head-to-head record against the bookies’ favourite for this 3rd Quarter of the men’s draw-sheet, Daniil Medvedev. If he gets through tonight’s 2nd Round match, Hurkacz could face Ugo Humbert next - and the world no.9 holds a 2-0 record against the Frenchman.
All told, odds of 80/1 appeal for Hubert Hurkacz as an outsider prospect. Which is an odd thing to be able to say about a player ranked no.9 in the world, with one of the very best serves in the game. He has a 68% career match win-rate on outdoor hard courts - a stat that puts him very close to my magic ‘70%’ figure for standout surface-specific players. And if any of the star names slip up, a consistent performer like Hubi could be the man to move in and take advantage…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Men’s Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
Play starts at midnight.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 6 email…
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone