Tennis Betting Advice - June 2024
French Open: Semi Final advice for our 150/1 shot...
Wednesday 5th June 2024
French Open – Email #5
Good evening. What do I always say? It only takes one...
Our 150/1 Each Way pick Jasmine Paolini has made it to the French Open semi finals. The 28-year-old Italian is one match away from landing us a huge place payout - and maybe even more...
Sport never ceases to surprise.
Favourites don't always win.
And women's tennis in particular tends to produce a high number of big-odds tournament outcomes...
Five of the last seven women's French Open finals have seen a 100/1+ finalist. This Saturday, another big price will be added to that list...
While star names and Grand Slam champs Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff will face off in the first semi on Thursday afternoon. Ranked no.1 and no.3 in the world respectively. And having started the Roland Garros fortnight at odds of 4/6 (Swiatek) and 10/1 (Gauff). The second semi final is a whole different story...
Either Jasmine Paolini or Mirra Andreeva will get to play in a Grand Slam final for the first time. Both will also be making their semi-final debuts...
The former being our early-bird pick from 27th March - with Paolini then also flagged up at 150/1 Each Way (1/2 odds for reaching the final) with several firms ahead of the opening weekend of the tournament, on 24th May...
The latter being Russian teenager Andreeva - who featured as the leading female youngster in my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2024 report, first published on 22nd December. Mirra turned 17 years of age last month...
While Paolini went off at triple-figure odds pretty much across the boards. Andreeva was 66/1 and 40/1 at the starts of the Paris fortnight - and, as alluded to in the pre-season report - my feeling was that she was probably being priced shorter than she should be, based on the hype around the teenager...
We're on the biggest shock/ 'surprise package' of the tournament in Paolini, though - based on the prices across both the women's and the men's French Open 2024...
And as such, we have the chance to give ourselves a free roll on Andreeva here...
I've given the various 'hedging' and 'saver bet' options and permutations a large amount of time and thought this evening. So much so, that it's now gone midnight, and will be Thursday AM when you read this...
Trying to keep the account-bet advice as simple as possible here. I'm working on the principal that we have Paolini in the book as a 150/1 Each Way shot, for a 1-point Each Way stake...
With a 75/1 payout riding on the place part of the bet: in other words, Paolini to beat Andreeva in Thursday's semi final.
I'm willing to give up 25 pts of that 75/1 place part. Creating a 'free bet' scenario by backing Andreeva to beat Paolini in the Match Winner market, for a 15-point stake at odds of 4/6...
And allocating that potential 10-point match profit to fund a Win Only bet on Andreeva for the trophy at 8/1 or better...
Eg.
15 pts on Andreeva to beat Paolini @ 4/6 = 25 pts potential return
And:
10 pts on Andreeva to win the French Open @ 8/1+
That gives us skin in the game should the teenager go all the way. And keeps our original pick Paolini on-side as the biggest potential profit-maker for us.
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See above for full details and staking advice
ONLY PLACE IF YOU PREVIOUSLY BACKED PAOLINI AS ADVISED
Match Winner:
15 pts: Mirra Andreeva to beat Jasmine Paolini @ 4/6 (1.67) Skybet and in general
Women’s Outright Winner:
10 pts: Mirra Andreeva @ 9/1 (10.0) Unibet (also 10.0+ Betfair Exchange), 17/2 (9.5) Bet365, 8/1 (9.0) general
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport, with court choice via the Eurosport app and Discovery Plus platform. Or via live streaming with bookies including Bet365 and Skybet.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone