Tennis Betting Advice - May 2024
French Open: Outright Winner picks at 100/1...
Friday 24th May 2024
French Open – Email #1
Everyone agrees that this year’s French Open men’s event will have a different feel to it. By all accounts, this looks like being Rafael Nadal’s final showing at Roland Garros…
A tournament that Rafa has absolutely dominated. Surpassing Borg or Federer at Wimbledon. Nadal has owned Paris. Winning the title a record-smashing 14 times. An achievement that may never, ever be broken. GOAT behaviour, for sure. An all-time great.
But while Nadal is the story right now… a lowly ranking due to his injury issues and lack of matches, coupled with the French Open organisers’ refusal to hand 37-year-old Rafa a seeding in the draw… has resulted in the Spanish legend’s name coming out the hat to face a high-ranking seed in the very 1st round…
Romanticism aside, a fit and ready Alexander Zverev should be able to do the professional thing, and take out the headline name. The Goodbye Rafa narrative may get dealt with, on court at least, very early on in the tournament.
Of course, fools have been made before by writing off proven champions. Nadal is 25/1 for the trophy. In any other year – for the last 15 years or more – that price would have looked huge. He used to regularly go off as an odds-on favourite… and then still win the thing with room to spare. But this time, finally, those days really do look to be over.
So, if the big man is soon to be waving an emotional goodbye to the Roland Garros crowd, who could step in and collect a French Open trophy of their own?
Familiar favourites – and the best of the rest…
The top of the betting is as predictable as it is unexciting. The world’s current Top 3 lead the market. World no.1 Novak Djokovic is 3/1 (4.0). World no.2 Jannik Sinner is 5/1 (6.0). And no.3 Carlos Alcaraz is 11/4 (3.75) at best. Followed by no.4 Zverev, at 7/1. Former runner-up and current world no.9 Stefanos Tsitsipas completes the list of single-figure-odds favourites, at no bigger than 9/1.
In-between those 3/1 – 9/1 names, and before Nadal and the rest of the field at 25/1+. You’ll find two-time returning French Open finalist, Casper Ruud. A man we’ve backed before as a Ones to Watch youngster at large prices in big tournaments…
The current world no.7, Ruud is 12/1 here. And seems to be getting the billing he deserves: a serious clay-court contender, who doesn’t get many headlines – Casper has made three Grand Slam finals and is still only 25 years old… but he’s yet to win one.
Many pundits and commentators have Ruud down as a ‘best of the rest’ chance here. I detect a sense of nagging doubt as to whether, when it comes right down to the biggest, crunch moments in a Major final, with all the pressure on, Casper can be fully trusted to pull out the magic moments that the likes of Alcaraz and Sinner have up their sleeve.
If Ruud wins at 12/1, he’ll likely have to get past Novak Djokovic before getting to what would be a third final. It’s not a bad price. But it’s not a particularly appealing Ones to Watch price, either…
To reiterate what I said once again in Tuesday’s email:
Here at Ones to Watch, we go after appealing outsiders and attractive Each Way prices in the tournament Outright Winner markets…
And over the upcoming French Open fortnight, we’ll certainly be applying that approach to the women’s event, too…
As outlined in our pre-tournament research & analysis in Wednesday’s notes:
In the last seven years, there have been five women’s French Open finalists at 100/1 or bigger…
Women’s Grand Slams continually dumfound. World no.1 Iga Swiatek won her third Roland Garros title last year. But the runner-up was Grand Slam final debutant and 100/1 shot Karolina Muchova, a result that was worth a 50/1 place payout to Each Way backers.
The new women’s ‘Big 4’ is starting to become pretty established in 2024. Swiatek is odds-on at just 4/6 (1.67). World no.2 Aryna Sabalenka is 5/1. Iga has just beaten Aryna in back-to-back WTA 1000 Masters finals in this spring’s ‘dirtball double’ at Madrid and Rome.
World no.3 and 2022 French Open runner-up Coco Gauff is 10/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral, but shorter everywhere else, barring the Betfair Exchange where you can get half a point bigger, at 11.5 (not taking commission rates into account). As I reported last week, Coco is struggling with her second serve again, piling up a high number of double faults. That’s a weakness that makes the young American vulnerable on the big occasion. The like of Swiatek, Sabalenka, and world no.4 Elena Rybakina, will all gobble up the chance to step in and intimidate and attack a player with a floppy second serve.
Rybakina is an interesting one here. She’s never quite seemed fully fit or playing at her very, very top level yet this season. But has shown her grit and ability, winning from behind and coming through tough three-set scraps on numerous occasions. She’s the only player to have beaten Swiatek on clay so far this year. Rybakina goes off at 10/1 in general, and 11/1 at Boylesports. The Kazakh representative has never been further than the quarter finals at the French Open. But the 24-year-old has made two Grand Slam finals in recent years, winning Wimbledon 2021 as a 100/1 rank outsider, and then reaching the Australian Open 2023 final having gone off at 22/1.
For different reasons to the similarly-priced Ruud in the men’s event, Rybakina feels like a ‘best of the rest’ contender in the women’s field – and that statement might be a little harsh, given her winning pedigree. But the illness/ fitness doubts that sometimes swirl ultimately put me off right now.
Back to our big-odds business, then…
And with the men’s tournament very possibly opening-up this time, too. We could also see a 50/1 or 100/1 shot go very deep in that event, as well as in the women’s…
The early bird gets the worm…
Here are my early-bird, before-a-ball-is-hit selections for the French Open 2024. Outsiders all. Underdog prices. Each Way potential. And all with credentials that suggest to me that they can outperform expectations – and do considerably better than their Outright Winner prices suggest…
Already in the book:
Danielle Collins – I talked about Collins’ steamroller form the other day. The 30-year-old American continues to impress in what she says is her final year on the tour. We got a top-price 35/1 on 14th May, with 25s around that week, too.
As I write, Collins is into this week’s WTA Strasbourg semi finals – and is set to move back into the world’s Top 10 next Monday. Danielle has been utterly dominant in her two matches so far in Strasbourg, taking just a few minutes more than an hour to boss each opponent in straight sets, 6-1, 6-2, and then 6-1, 6-3. Whisper it quietly, but those score-lines are Swiatek-like. Collins may need to beat Iga in order to go all the way in Paris…
Jasmine Paolini – our early-bird 100/1+ pick went in the book back in March. The 28-year-old Italian has won the biggest title of her career this year (WTA 1000 Dubai). And has hit a new highest ranking of no.12 this season (currently no.13).
Jasmine has yet to do better than a quarter final on clay this spring. But she has the clay-court credentials, and is certainly an underdog with a chance to spring a surprise, in my eyes. Again, if you’re not on yet, then take the best price for Paolini today. She’s 150/1 with Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook.
Another name in my notes is our 2017 Ones to Watch French Open champion, Jelena Ostapenko. She’s 40/1 at best, and 33/1 in general. The 26-year-old Latvian remains as enigmatic as ever. Since winning Roland Garros as a 100/1 newcomer, she’s failed to get past the 3rd round in six subsequent visits.
We can’t back them all. And I could literally write to you for hours about many, many different players, and their various chances here in Paris this coming fortnight. Let’s not go bet-crazy from the off. Adding these to the list today, alongside the aforementioned Collins and Paolini…
I’m always on the lookout for a proper youngster with off-the-radar, Grand Slam outsider potential. Diana Shnaider featured in my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2024 Report. And the strong-armed, bandana-wearing Russian is putting together her breakthrough season right now…
In February, Shnaider won her first senior WTA title, taking the silverware in Hua Hin, Thailand. She went off as a 40/1 shot there. Since then, Diana has turned 20 years of age, and reached two finals on the lower-tier circuit. Finishing runner-up at Charleston, USA. And then – most recently – winning here in Paris, on clay, at an ITF event, just last week…
Form is form, even if you’re not playing the top names every week. That statement is especially relevant for confident and ambitious young players, hungry to make their mark. Shnaider fits that bit. She has the attacking, powerful, no-fear game that we love here at Ones to Watch. It’s the kind of go-for-broke tennis that saw Ostapenko steal the headlines at the same age, back in 2017.
At huge, completely rank outsider odds of 500/1, we’ll take Shnaider as a true, young, speculative Ones to Watch selection. If she does break through and take a scalp or two, then we can say we were on the former Girls’ French Open semi-finalist the first time she made her move at the main event.
At the other end of the career spectrum, former world no.1 and two-time Australian Open champ Victoria Azarenka could go deep in this draw…
The 34-year-old is ranked at no.21 right now. She’s made a strong return to the tour since becoming a mother. Yet to win a trophy since 2020. But she’s come close, reaching the semis in Australia as recently as 2023, and the US Open final in 2020.
Pre-motherhood, Azarenka reached the semi finals here at Roland Garros in 2013. Much more recently, the Belarusian got to the quarter finals in Rome this month, where there was no shame in losing to a red-hot Danielle Collins.
Vika has spoken before about still having the tennis passion, the desire to win – and the hunger for more Grand Slam titles.
And the deciding factor for me to pull the trigger with this particular ‘long shot’ selection, with odds of 250/1 and 150/1 on the table, is the way the early rounds of this Paris draw could pan out for Azarenka…
She has notable, get-in-their-mind career head-to-head records against two fellow seeds in this bottom half of the women’s draw: Azarenka is 3-0 v Maria Sakkari, and 4-0 v Daria Kasatkina. Not many players hold the cards when it comes to having the on-court presence to intimidate an opponent. But Vika has it.
And combined with a winning determination and champion’s mindset, she could prove a dark horse here. As ever, we need fitness to align with form. But triple-figure odds allow for that.
Two 100/1 outsiders in the men’s…
In the men’s event, I have two 100/1+ picks for us. Next week and/ or in week two, we may make a couple of moves at less speculative prices. But as outlined above, this year’s French Open has the potential for producing an outrageous result at massive odds…
Not many people mention this, but Tommy Paul won the French Open as a junior. Winning the Boys’ title doesn’t guarantee senior success, of course. But any slip-up or injury issues for Djokovic in the top half of the draw, and Paul could be the man to take advantage…
I’ve written before about Tommy’s unassuming, ‘quiet man’ demeanour. Cap down over his eyes, no drama. Even his name doesn’t jump off the written page. But make no mistake, Tommy Paul is a classy tennis player. He’s threatened to steal the show before. Reaching the Australian Open semi final last year, having gone off at odds of 150/1+. And just this month, May 2024, Paul has shown what he can do on clay: making the Rome Masters semi finals, from a starting price of 125/1.
It would be a big deal if an American man was to get to the final of any Grand Slam this year. So starved are the stars & stripes in the men’s game, compared to the last glory days of Agassi, Sampras, and Chang. It would be even more of a big story and surprise on clay. But I believe Paul has the game for it. And with a fair tailwind and maybe the drawsheet throwing up a surprise or two to clear the path, the 27-year-old world no.14, self-confessed ‘farm boy’ could put together another one of the low-key, big-odds runs that are becoming his trademark.
From the quiet man to the ‘nice guy’ now, and long-time readers will know that that means an outsider-price bet on our old friend, Hubert Hurkacz…
Hubi nearly did it for us at Wimbledon a couple of summers back, ending Roger Federer’s final SW19 quest, and reaching the semi finals. We were on the big-serving Pole at 200/1 and the like that year. So close to a three-figure Each Way payout – or better.
This spring, the ATP Tour’s no.1 server – ranked top for Most Aces right now. Has suddenly shown us that he’s been working on his clay-court game. The 27-year-old world no.8 has collected his first career title on the red stuff, winning at ATP Estoril in Portugal in April. Then making the quarter finals in Rome this month, where he held a lead against Paul, before the American staged a late comeback.
Hurkacz is 11-3 on clay in 2024. Last season, his clay match win-loss read a much less convincing 5-5. A leap has occurred. The next step, as we’ve commented before, is for Mr Nice Guy to get stuck in and really show what he can do at Grand Slam level on a more consistent basis. In 2021, Hubi broke his duck at ATP Masters 1000 level, and went on to win another of those in 2023. He’s won eight out of 10 finals overall, which shows he’s mentally tougher than some give him credit for.
As with Paul, we’ll take Hurkacz on a flyer at a huge price. 100/1 would be nice…
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks – French Open:
See above for full details
Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Already in the book:
Danielle Collins – see above
Jasmine Paolini – see above
Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Play starts on Monday.
You watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back with Email #2 on Tuesday…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone