Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024

Indian Wells - Day 3: Acca update, and 100/1 shots...

Friday 8th March 2024

Welcome to Day 3 of your DAILY Indian Wells service…

Acca update…

Play starts at 7pm, UK time – weather permitting. The action was cut short again on Thursday night. Leaving us hanging with our men’s 1st round match acca

We’re on four out of five so far. With the final match bumped over to tonight’s schedule, due on court around 8.30pm:

Jakub Mensik to beat Seong Chan Hong – WON 2-0
Gael Monfils to beat Max Purcell – WON 2-0
Borna Coric to beat Sebastian Ofner – WON 2-1
Alex Michelsen to beat Jaume Munar – WON 2-0
Zhizhen Zhang to beat Aleksandar Kovacevic – PLAYS TONIGHT… 

  • If you want to play it safe, the overnight delay means you do have the chance to hedge your bets with the final leg of the 5-fold, and back Aleksandar Kovacevic to beat Zhizhen Zhang – available at 13/10 (2.3) with Bet365 and BetVictor as I write. I’ll leave that one up to you. We’re on the acca at a top-price 39/10 (4.9)

100/1 shots…

We’ve been building our tournament Outright Winner book over the opening couple of days. With our women’s preview in Wednesday’s email, and the men’s yesterday.

With our Ones to Watch mantras the same as ever in these markets:

We back appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices…

And at the odds we go for: it only takes one…

Sticking to our aggressive approach, in a tournament with a rich history of big-odds finalists and upsets. Two picks to add to our outsider selections in the women’s event today.

A mixture of age and experience here. Both have been threatening a big run at a big tournament for a while now – and this just might be the one…

VICTORIA AZARENKA @ 100/1

The 34-year-old Azarenka has been in the ‘comeback’ phase of her career for some time now. Other, newer mothers on the tour are getting more attention right now (Naomi Osaka, Caroline Wozniacki, Elina Svitolina). But at odds of 100/1, and with the Belarusian landing in a fairly favourable/ potentially open section of the draw here – Vika is the one I like as a dark horse…

In the first phase of her career, Azarenka won Indian Wells twice (2016, 2012). And since then, the former world no.1 has shown what she can do on these courts again, reaching the final in 2021.

Last season, Azarenka reached the semi finals on her favoured hard courts, at the Australian Open. And the current world no.30 has started 2024 with some promise and intent, too. Reaching the semi finals at WTA Brisbane and the quarter finals in Doha – with no shame in losing to the world’s Top 2 players, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka.

A recent retirement when tied a set-all with world no.4 Elena Rybakina in Dubai last month is the only concern. But Vika has had time since to prepare for Indian Wells, which is clearly a high-profile trophy target. 100/1 appeals for an outsider who could go deep.

MARTA KOSTYUK @ 100/1

At the other end of the career spectrum, 21-year-old Kostyuk is still searching for her first big moment at a Major, or a Masters 1000 like this one…

The young Ukrainian has been a regular in our Ones to Watch lists since she was a teenager. Having won a maiden WTA title last season (on hard courts here in the USA, at WTA Austin), Kostyuk is starting to mature into the powerful player we always thought she could be. And while odds of 100/1 are still on the table for this determined and passionate young player, we should follow her on her quest…

It's usually a wild & bumpy ride, with some three-set scraps and rollercoaster scoreboards. But it would only take one or two of those to go her way for Marta to end up at a much shorter price after the weekend – and looking at an opportunity in the business end of this event.

Kostyuk has certainly been knocking on the door of late. With signs that 2024 might be a big breakthrough year for her…

The world no.32 made the quarter finals at the Australian Open in January, only just pipped to a place in the semis by Coco Gauff, in a match that was every inch one of those ‘rollercoasters’ I was just talking about. Gauff eventually finished the stronger, 7-6, 6-7, 6-2. But it could have gone either way, and Marta will have felt how close she was.

That new personal-best Grand Slam showing was followed most recently by a run to the WTA San Diego final – with Kostyuk again showing her pedigree on hard courts.

I’ve had Marta down as one-to-watch for some time now. Let’s follow her right now, with her form and chances looking to be on an upward trajectory.

  • A quick note on the latest available best prices for the women’s picks we already have in the book. Bet365 are today a standout 250/1 for Sorana Cirstea. Skybet are now going 33/1 for Jelena Ostapenko. While Dayana Yastremska (150/1) and Marketa Vondrousova (50/1) are still available at those advised prices with a few firms, including Bet365 and Betfred

View all our tournament picks and the original write-ups for each in the Email Archive on our website: here, and here.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ones to Watch picks – Indian Wells:

See above for full details

WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Victoria Azarenka – best combination 100/1 Win Only and 80/1 to Reach the Final @ Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Or 100/1 Each Way Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM 
  • Marta Kostyuk – best combination 100/1 Win Only and 80/1 to Reach the Final @ Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Skybet. Or 100/1 Each Way Betfred, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Play starts from 7pm, UK time. Bookies will take down their Outright markets during the matches.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 4 email.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:

oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch