Tennis Betting Advice - March 2025
Miami Open: We're on Jess in the Quarter Finals...
Tuesday 25th March 2025
For the fourth year running, Jessica Pegula is into the Miami Open quarter finals…
In the men’s Miami Open, 66/1 pick Reilly Opelka put in an underwhelming display yesterday, in front of a flat first-match-on crowd at the Hard Rock Stadium.
I may yet come to rue leaving out teenager Jakub Mensik. But then again, as I stated in yesterday’s advice, as with fellow Czech, Tomas Machac - who beat Opelka, and has just this moment withdrawn from the tournament - fitness issues tend to swirl around those two. It’s pretty frustrating to see Opelka go out to Machac, and then to see the victor miss the next match anyway.
While in the women’s, our 50/1+ selection Amanda Anisimova suffered from a harsh turnaround with the match scheduling. Amanda came through a gruelling three-hour tussle on Sunday evening, only to then be summoned back on court on Monday afternoon.
Credit to Emma Raducanu, who is certainly playing better than I’ve seen her for a while. But although the extremely biased BBC (etc) UK coverage won’t tell you as much, anyone who watched that match will have seen that Anisimova had to get the trainer on to have her playing hand bandaged up, and was struggling physically from the off.
Anyway, the day - and perhaps our tournament - was salvaged by Jessica Pegula staying calm and steady to take out the dangerous but inconsistent Ones to Watch youngster, Marta Kostyuk.
From 0-3 down in the second set, Pegula won six games in a row to take the match in straight sets, 6-2, 6-3.
Jess doesn’t get the same headline status as American no.1 Coco Gauff (who was knocked out yesterday). But the 31-year-old Pegula is the American no.2. And in the overall WTA world rankings, Coco is no.3 and Jessica is no.4.
Pegula has now won 10 of her last 11 matches. All played on outdoor hard courts in North America…
Having won the WTA 250 event in Austin as a 7/4 (2.75) favourite last month. Making the Last 16 at WTA 1000 Indian Wells. And now booking a place in the WTA 1000 Miami quarter finals for the fourth year running - having made the semi finals in both 2022 and 2023…
I’d say our player might be a little underrated here. Granted, in the betting, Pegula will go off as the match favourite against current world no.60 Raducanu on Wednesday. But if you take only a glancing interest in the sport and/ or only follow mainstream media channels like the BBC and Sky Sports. You’d be forgiven for thinking that Emma was favourite.
The head-to-head between Raducanu and Pegula is 1-1. Pegula won their only previous hard-court meeting, at Cincinnati in 2022…
This section of the women’s Miami Open draw is interesting, in that world no.2 and 2022 Miami champ Iga Swiatek is the bookies’ heavy favourite to be waiting for Pegula or Raducanu in the semi finals…
Long-time Ones to Watch followers will know all about how good Iga is. But it has to be said that in recent months, whether it’s off-court pressures and issues taking their toll, or just a slight drop in level in the biggest moments. The facts are that Swiatek has lost her last five semi finals, and hasn’t reached a final since winning the French Open on her beloved clay last June.
Should they meet later this week in Miami, Swiatek leads the overall career head-to-head, 6-4… but Pegula has held the upper hand more recently, winning 2 of their last 3 contests, including on hard courts at the US Open last summer…
From odds of 25/1 (26.0) Each Way when we got her in the book for Miami last week, Pegula was down to single-figure odds in this morning’s latest Outright Winner betting, at 17/2 (9.5).
Once again then, we have a Ones to Watch selection going deep in a big tournament at an attractive price. And that’s what this game is all about.
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
I’ll be back on Thursday with a Notes from the Tour article for you.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone