Tennis Betting Advice - November 2022

A matter of time? I have a question for you…

Monday 7th November 2022

Were you on Holger Rune last week?

After beating six-time champion Novak Djokovic in a classic final yesterday afternoon, the 19-year-old becomes the latest big-odds winner of the Rolex Paris Masters…

Not only that, but the young Dane also now becomes a Top 10 player…

A matter of time…

Were you able to grab a decent price on Rune last week?

Rune started the tournament at 50/1. After he won his first two matches, saving three match points to beat Stan Wawrinka, then knocking out our initial pick Hubert Hurkacz. I flagged Holger up as a Ones to Watch pick on Thursday morning, with odds of 33/1, 30/1, and 28/1 available…

Admittedly, there were only a couple of hours in order to grab that 33/1 price. There was nothing I could do about that, and here’s why…

Unlike during the Grand Slams, when it comes to weekly ATP & WTA tournaments, bookmakers universally take down their Outright Winner markets when each day’s matches are being played…

Last Wednesday night (or should I say early Thursday morning) in Paris, a 3.03am local-time finish between Corentin Moutet and Cameron Norrie meant that the bookies’ revised Outright markets weren’t up until breakfast time…

That left me with only a small window of opportunity in which to write to you on Thursday – with the email sailing out of our distribution platform at 8am UK time. Play started at 10am.

After Rune beat Andrey Rublev in the round of Last 16, landing our underdog Match Winner bet at odds of 13/10+ (2.3+). I emailed you again on Friday, previewing the Paris quarter finals – with our man Rune now trading at 16/1…

Holger went on to complete a remarkable, record-breaking streak. Beating not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE Top 10 men in a row: Hubert Hurkacz, Andrey Rublev, then Carlos Alcaraz in the quarters, Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semis, and Novak Djokovic in the final.

Rune is the youngest Paris Masters champion since an 18-year-old Boris Becker in 1986.

It was scintillating stuff.

After a run of 10 out of 11 Each Way runner-up payouts in finals for our Ones to Watch picks this season, it sure felt good to land a big one as the 2022 campaign draws near to its conclusion. Check out the full list of our finalists and payout prices this year, here.

New young Masters…

Our other ‘big one’ this season also came at an ATP 1000 ‘Masters’ event. With 100/1 Taylor Fritz lifting the trophy at Indian Wells in March. And like Rune in Paris, Fritz didn’t have it easy – beating Rafael Nadal in the championship match, while nursing an injury.

Along with Each Way runner-up payouts from 33/1 Hubert Hurkacz in Montreal, and 22/1 Casper Ruud at the Miami Open. We’ve done well to latch onto the recent trend for maiden finalists & winners at Masters tournaments. Read my April article on that topic here.

Here’s the full 2022, ATP 1000 Masters list, with the day-one Outright Winner prices included for reference:

ATP 1000 Paris - Rolex Paris Masters
WINNER: H.Rune (50/1)
Runner-up: N.Djokovic (13/8)

ATP 1000 Cincinnati - Western & Southern Open
WINNER: B.Coric (150/1)
Runner-up: S.Tsitsipas (20/1)

ATP 1000 Montreal - National Bank Open presented by Rogers
WINNER: P.Carreno-Busta (100/1)
Runner-up: H.Hurkacz (33/1)

ATP 1000 Rome - Internazionali BNL d'Italia
WINNER: N.Djokovic (3/1)
Runner-up: S.Tsitsipas (6/1)

ATP 1000 Madrid - Mutua Madrid Open
WINNER: C.Alcaraz (4/1)
Runner-up: A.Zverev (11/1)

ATP 1000 Monte Carlo - Rolex Monte Carlo Masters
WINNER: S.Tsitsipas (7/1)
Runner-up: A.Davidovich Fokina (150/1)
ATP 1000 Miami - Miami Open presented by Itau
WINNER: C.Alcaraz (13/2)
Runner-up: C.Ruud (40/1)

ATP 1000 Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open
WINNER: T.Fritz (100/1)
Runner-up: R.Nadal (11/4)

Taylor Fritz, Carlos Alcaraz, Pablo Carreno-Busta, Borna Coric, and Holger Rune were all first-time Masters champs in 2022. That’s five out of eight ATP 1000 titles this season that went to maiden winners.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: we’re witnessing a changing of the guard in men’s tennis.

This gradual transition from the dominant days of the Big Four of Nadal, Djokovic, Andy Murray, and the now-retired Roger Federer, means we’re going to get plenty of chances to swoop on the Outright markets at attractive prices…

Plenty to be excited about for 2023. The new season starts with a flurry of activity in Australia, literally from New Year’s Day.

And before that, we’re not done with 2022 yet…

With the ATP Next Gen Finals in Milan this week, followed by the top-tier ATP Finals in Turin next week. As well as the international team tournament finals, the Billie Jean King Cup for the women, and the Davis Cup for the men.

Last but not least for today…

I have a question for you…

That Paris Masters/ Holger Rune story brought something to my mind again last week; a question and an idea I’ve had knocking around in my head for some time…

Is email still the way you would most prefer to receive your Ones to Watch betting picks and advice from me? The email format certainly allows me to show my working, share my thoughts – and add depth and detail to the analysis.

But as illustrated in last week’s 33/1 two-hour window for backing Holger Rune in Paris, perhaps a medium such as private-group WhatsApp or Telegram messaging would allow you to both access & act on the bet selections faster? And perhaps something like that could run alongside the main, email & article-based content that I send you each week?

Just a thought….

Let me know…

Email me at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch