ATP Finals - back this night-time trend to continue...

Friday 18th November 2022

Good morning. As I watched last night’s match at the ATP Finals in Turin, I was worried that I’d talked myself out of a couple of winners. Having noted both the Tiebreak in the Match trend, and the underdog price for Taylor Fritz to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime…

I ended up relieved in the end, as while Taylor was the better player and the deserving winner, Felix managed to steal the second-set tiebreak. In doing so, the Canadian no.1 landed my nominated pick for the match to go to the full 3 Sets.

American no.1 Fritz prevailed 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 - and it was every bit as tense as we’d expected (especially in the first two sets).

Updating the two profitable trends that we’ve been following this week at the ATP Finals:

• 7 of the 10 matches have featured at least one Tiebreak set – with 3 matches also paying out on ‘Over 1.5 Tiebreaks’

• 7 of the 10 matches have been won by the underdog in the Match Winner betting

Adding to those numbers, I also want to note that every day so far here in Italy, the evening match has paid out on a Tiebreak. That’s five matches out of five so far, with two of them seeing two x 7-6 scores in the same match.

The Group stage concludes today, and we have an interest in the night-time match…

Tsitsipas v Rublev tonight…

Stefanos Tsitsipas went in the book for us at 16/1 or 14/1 for the trophy, after losing his first match (v Novak Djokovic). That Outright Winner price is now trading at 6/1, after Stef knocked out Daniil Medvedev on Wednesday.

Our man now needs to beat Andrey Rublev this evening (8pm), with this match a straight shootout for the remaining semi-final place…

The overall career head-to-head is 7-5 to Tsitsipas.

There’s been a tiebreak (7-6 set score) in three of their last 10 meetings. However, given the fast playing conditions indoors here in Italy this week, the tournament’s tiebreak stats are the formline we should pay most attention to here.

• Tsitsipas has played 5 sets of tennis so far this week, and 3 of them have gone to a tiebreak

• Rublev played out 2 tiebreaks in his win over Medvedev

The Match Winner betting has our man Stef as the favourite, at 4/6 (1.67) at best and 8/13 (1.62) in general. Rublev is the underdog at 13/10 (2.3) and 5/4 (2.25). If you wanted a ‘saver bet’ to recoup your tournament Win Only stake on Tsitsipas, then backing the Russian underdog to win the match today would be the route to take. I’m happy to let this one ride though, with confidence in the Greek player to show he has the higher ceiling and wider variety to his game.

Having swerved it yesterday, I want to go with the scoreboard trend again today. With prices around Even Money (2.0) making the cut for another Tiebreak in the Match, considering all of the serving stats and 7-6 results we’re seeing here in Turin.

Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Finals, 8pm
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Live streaming on bookie sites inc. Bet365, Skybet

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Andrey Rublev

• Tiebreak in the Match: Yes @ 11/10 (2.1) Skybet, 21/20 (2.05) Boylesports, 10/11 (1.91) Unibet, 17/20 (1.85) William Hill, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365

Note: some bookies call this bet ‘Total Tiebreaks Over 0.5.’

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch