Tennis Betting Advice - September 2025
Shanghai Masters - early-bird picks at 40/1 and 80/1...
Tuesday 30th September 2025
The Rolex Shanghai Masters starts very early tomorrow morning, UK time - 5.30am to be precise…
Let’s make our first moves in the Outright Winner market today, as the first quotes are beginning to appear on the boards this Tuesday afternoon…
This ATP 1000 tournament is a big one. Men’s top two Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner were both due to be here. But as I write, the news has just broken that Alcaraz has pulled out injured. While Sinner plays on Wednesday morning in the ATP Beijing final…
The news/ doubts over the big two’s participation might explain why the bookmakers have been a little slow in pricing up the Shanghai event today. Industry headliners Bet365 are up though - and we’ll work from their prices to start with here… expect more bookies to follow this evening…
In the top half of the draw, where no.1 seed Alcaraz has now been replaced by a Lucky Loser (world no.96, Mackenzie McDonald). With 33rd seed Corentin Moutet moved into Alcaraz’s position on the rearranged draw-sheet. We can go after two Ones to Watch outsiders who should be viewing this an opportunity to make hay at a ATP 1000 Masters event - and lift a proper big trophy for the first time…
ALEJANDRO DAVIDOVICH FOKINA has featured in my write-ups a couple of times this season. The talented Spaniard is still searching for a debut ATP title, but has come oh-so-close in 2025 (runner-up in three finals, including having match points…). Odds of 80/1 allow for his inconsistency on a week-to-week basis. It’s worth knowing that the 26-year-old world no.20 has made a Masters final once before.
Davidovich Fokina is in the same section of the draw as former no.1 Daniil Medvedev here, but the Russian retired injured in Beijing this morning, so he’s also a doubt to compete here now. Maybe the stars are aligning for Alejandro.
JIRI LEHECKA featured as one of the Czech men to watch in this year’s pre-season Ones to Watch Report. The big-hitting 23-year-old world no.17 has won two titles so far on the tour, both on outdoor hard courts. He could go well in the conditions here. A best-ever Grand Slam run at the US Open last month (quarter final), followed by an unbeaten recent stint for Czechia at the Davis Cup, bodes well for Jiri’s chances of going deep at 40/1.
Last but not least, in the bottom half of the draw, which houses Sinner (as it stands). The man we talked about in Notes from the Tour last week (read more here), ALEXANDER BUBLIK. The 28-year-old Kazakh is riding high with four ATP singles trophies under his belt this season - and a new career-best ranking of no.16 in the world.
As with the temperamental (but maturing) Davidovich Fokina, Bublik is potentially more dangerous than odds of 80/1 suggest…
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Shanghai - Rolex Shanghai Masters
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
NOTE: other bookies to price up this evening. You may be able to beat the above prices with some firms. Latest market on Oddschecker here.
PRICE UPDATE (9.30pm same day - sent via WhatsApp channel): Betfred 100/1 Davidovich Fokina and 100/1 Bublik, 40/1 Lehecka.
Play starts from 5.30am, UK time. Bookies will take down Outright Winner markets during each day’s matches.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
P.S
We still have two of our three selections running for us in the women’s China Open (WTA Beijing - last week’s preview here): 22/1 Jasmine Paolini, and 50/1 Linda Noskova.
All the action from China is live on Sky Sports Tennis - if you’re up early enough to catch it…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone