Notes from the Tour: Taking on the no.1 this evening...

Thursday 12th March 2026

Is it a curse? Is it a quirk? Or does it just show how tough the conditions are in the Californian desert…

After Mirra Andreeva was dumped out of the BNP Paribas Open in the 3rd round this week, the trend continues for at least another 12 months…

In its 30-year+ history, no player has ever successfully defended the WTA Indian Wells title. Russian teenager Andreeva lifted the trophy here in 2025, but her crown is gone.

Another Ones to Watch teenager is in the running for the title as I write…

Victoria Mboko, who featured in our latest pre-season list, takes on world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka in the quarter finals this evening (6pm UK time)...

Sabalenka has been a beaten finalist here in two of the last three seasons. The top name in the field, the Belarusian is looking for a maiden Indian Wells trophy - as is 19-year-old Mboko…

The bookmakers are clear. No prizes for guessing that they have the world no.1 as the favourite. With Sabalenka at 2/7 (1.29). And world no.10 Mboko at 3/1 (4.0) at best, and more like 11/4 (3.75) or 13/5 (3.6) with most firms.

These two have met once before. And that match wasn’t too long ago, with Aryna beating the Canadian teenager 6-1, 7-6 in January, in the 4th round of the Australian Open.

The bookies have set the match handicap line for this one at 4.5 Games. Sabalenka covered that when they played each other in Melbourne. But Mboko is getting better and better, and the youngster has won all three of her matches here in California without dropping a set…

That includes a statement 6-4, 6-1 score-line against world no.6 Amanda Anisimova in the last round…

You & I landed a Games Handicap winner in this column this time last week, with Diane Parry covering the -4.5 handicap against Venus Williams in the 1st round…

Today, I want to be on the ‘plus’ side of a 4.5-games line. With fast-rising star Victoria Mboko very much One to Watch. The teenager appeals with a +4.5 Games Handicap at Evens (2.0) with Boylesports and Unibet or 10/11 (1.91) with the likes of Bet365, Skybet, and on Betfair.

I’m anticipating a big performance from the young gun today. I’m expecting Mboko to have learnt from that defeat Down Under; I watched that match, and Victoria nearly reeled in the top seed in that tight second set at the Australian Open…

P.S

If you’re not a member yet…

Over on the full members-only Ones to Watch service, in the Outright Winner betting, we’re on three of the eight men in tonight’s ATP Indian Wells quarter finals…

In the book at odds of 25/1, 150/1, and 150/1…

Now trading at 16/1, 50/1, and 50/1, respectively…

You’ve missed those jumbo prices - but we go again next week, with the Miami Open starting on Tuesday…

Don’t miss the next big one…

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Enjoy the tennis…

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch