Tennis Betting Advice - August 2024

One to Watch for the US Open at 100/1...

Friday 9th August 2024

I’ll be watching this afternoon’s match between Emma Navarro and Marta Kostyuk with interest…

Those two meet on hard courts at the WTA Toronto, National Bank Open round of 16. A place in the quarter finals awaits the victor. It’s the first time they’ve faced each other competitively.

US Open price-watch…

This week in Canada, we’re on Navarro at 20/1. And in the current Outright Winner market for the upcoming US Open, which starts on 26th August. The American, world no.15 is priced at a general 33/1 to win a maiden Grand Slam in New York…

That 33/1 US Open price for Navarro is in a similar ballpark to two other Ones to Watch names we’ve discussed at length (and profited from) this year – Qinwen Zheng, and Jasmine Paolini.

While 33/1 is not to be sniffed at. What I’m really keen on, this far in advance of play actually getting underway in the Big Apple at the end of the month – is 100/1 and better for another young prospect…

One to Watch at 100/1+…

MARTA KOSTYUK has been a long-time presence in Ones to Watch. If you’ve been with me for a while, for example, you may remember the fiery youngster appeared in our pre-season report for the 2022 season. Marta was still a teenager then, yet to win a first WTA title on the tour – and ranked at no.50 in the world.

Fast-forward to summer 2024, and a lot has changed for the passionate Ukrainian – both on and off the court…

Kostyuk has cracked the Top 20 in the rankings, won a maiden WTA Singles title – and at the Australian Open in January of this year, she posted her best-ever result at a Major, reaching the quarter finals…

Away from the tennis, Marta has got married. And the 22-year-old has been keen to use her position in the public eye to draw attention to the ongoing war in her home country.

  • In terms of flying the flag at the tennis Grand Slams, current Ukrainian no.1 female Kostyuk is in strong company. With Dayana Yastremska making the Australian Open semi finals this year, and Elina Svitolina reaching the Wimbledon semis last summer…

In March, Marta came very close to landing us an absolute whopper of a bet. I put Kostyuk up as a 100/1 outsider for Indian Wells – and at 80/1 to Reach the Final. She got all the way to the semi finals, just one match win away from banking us some serious returns. She’s the kind of player who I have down as capable of pulling off a big, rollercoaster, potential-shock result…

Play hard…

Indian Wells is a hard-court event, and an established WTA 1000-grade ‘Masters’ one at that. Only the four Grand Slams are bigger. And of the four ‘Slams, two are played on hard courts: the Aussie Open in Melbourne, where Kostyuk posted a career-best quarter-final run last time out. And the US Open in New York…

The 22-year-old has yet to get past round three at Flushing Meadows in NYC, in five attempts. I’m not too worried about that. This is a young lady playing some of her best tennis yet this season, and still plenty young enough to continue maturing and improving…

I’ve talked before about players doing well at Indian Wells and then going on to taste debut Major glory at the US Open, the same year. Bianca Andreescu in 2019 and Naomi Osaka in 2018 being two women who instantly spring to mind – with those two both winning Indian Wells before going on to end the summer with the US Open trophy in their hands.

Marta didn’t win Indian Wells, but she got to the final four. And if she had got her hands on the silverware in the Californian desert this spring, we certainly wouldn’t be getting odds of 100/1+ for the US Open right now…

Kostyuk is often pigeonholed as a clay-court player. But I’m not having that. As a pro, she’s won more matches on hard courts than on any other surface. Her sole career WTA title to date came in the States on hard courts (Austin, Texas – 2023).

This season, Marta’s hard-court form is punctuated by standout runs and ‘almost’ moments: that first Major quarter final at the Australian Open, a final at WTA San Diego (another USA tick), and then that Indian Wells semi. Those three all came between January and March, so maybe people have short memories…

If Marta goes deep in Toronto this week, or Cincinnati next week… then mark my words, 100/1 for New York will evaporate. Let’s take the triple-figure US Open odds now, while we still can…

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Ones to Watch picks:

See above for full details

US Open 2024 – Women’s

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Marta Kostyuk @ 200/1 Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet, 100/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway

Useful to know: Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM & LiveScoreBet are all powered by the Kambi sportsbook. In other words, if the 200/1 gets chopped with one of them, it will go with all of them. 100/1 is widely available elsewhere.

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I’ll be back in touch next week, with the Cincinnati Masters taking place – the last 1000-grade event before the US Open…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:

oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch