Tennis Betting Advice - January 2024
Aus Open Day 12: Women's Semi Finals...
Wednesday 24th January 2024
Australian Open - Day 12
100/1 shots aren’t supposed to get to the semi finals…
So I supposed we shouldn’t be too gutted that Linda Noskova fell in the quarter finals last night.
But then again…
500/1 shots certainly aren’t supposed to reach the final four. And that was Dayana Yastremska’s price on Day 1 of the Australian Open last week.
I’ve been saying this for several years now. And I’ll say it again…
The women’s Grand Slams are up for grabs. Wide open…
As I reported before the tournament, the stats and prices show it…
That’s proved the case yet again this Melbourne fortnight.
With either 33/1 Qinwen Zheng or 500/1 Dayana Yastremska set to feature in this weekend’s women’s final. The revised numbers will look like this:
11 of the last 16 women's Grand Slams will have produced at least one finalist at Day 1 odds of 33/1+
And 10 of the last 28 women’s Grand Slam finalists will have started the tournament as 100/1+ outsiders
Remarkable stuff.
And that’s why we play the big prices here at Ones to Watch.
As it stands for this tournament, we will have an underdog flying the flag for us in Saturday's final…
Qinwen Zheng was our Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places) pick from Day 1 - in the book at 33/1, 30/1, or 28/1
And Dayana Yastremska was advised yesterday as a ‘saver bet’ - Win Only at odds of 33/1, 30/1, 28/1, or 25/1
In the updated Outright Winner market, Qinwen Zheng is now 5/1 at best to go all the way, with Yastremska at 14/1.
Women’s Semi Finals - the case for the underdogs…
It’s women’s semi finals day next up, with two big matches scheduled for Thursday morning, UK time…
Coco Gauff v Aryna Sabalenka - 8.30am
Followed by:
Dayana Yastremska v Qinwen Zheng
While it’s the first meeting for the two Grand Slam semi-final debutants, Yastremska and Qinwen Zheng…
The box-office semi is a rematch of last year’s US Open final, where Gauff came from a set down to beat Sabalenka to win her maiden Major title.
The overall head-to-head between Gauff and Sabalenka is 4-2 to the American teenager…
On outdoor hard courts, it’s 3-1 to Coco - although all three of those victories went the distance to three sets, with Gauff coming through via the 2-1 Set Betting score…
This match-up is the world no.4 v the world no.2. Gauff is the reigning US Open champ - and Sabalenka is defending her Australian Open title. It’s likely to be close…
And those old psychological foes - nerves & pressure - are sure to play a part…
Gauff had a scrappy 2-1 win in the quarter finals. My underdog take is that she got a ‘win ugly’ result out the way there…
Win Ugly being the catchphrase of vastly experienced coach Brad Gilbert, who did great things with Andre Agassi, and works with Coco these days. I own a copy of Gilbert’s book, Winning Ugly: Mental Warfare in Tennis - Lessons from a Master.
Sabalenka is certainly no stranger to nerves, as I’ve stated many times in Ones to Watch. She has all the power at her disposal to blow any opponent away. But if the stress level rises too much - the wheels can come off. Especially so on the big stage of a Grand Slam semi final, even with all the improvements that the Belarusian has made over the past year.
My underdog price pick here is Gauff 2-1 at 9/2 (5.5) in the Set Betting market.
And I like the same score selection and price, too, for Yastremksa v Qinwen Zheng. The Chinese player has the serve and the pedigree. But the Ukrainian has long been on the Ones to Watch radar, is playing some lights-out brilliant stuff right now - and is actually looking the calmest of all four remaining women.
My big-price angle here is to back the two semi-final outsiders - Gauff and Yastremska - to come through closely-fought matches, in the full three sets. At odds of 9/2 each. And 29/1 for the double…
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Ones to Watch picks - Australian Open:
Women’s Semi Finals
Set Betting: Coco Gauff to win 2-1 v Aryna Sabalenka @ 9/2 William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM
Set Betting: Dayana Yastremska to win 2-1 v Qinwen Zheng @ 9/2 William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM
DOUBLE. Set Betting: Gauff 2-1 & Yastremska 2-1 @ 29/1 same bookies
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You can watch the Australian Open live on Eurosport/ Discovery Plus.
Play starts from 8.30am.
I’ll be back by 5pm tomorrow with your Day 13 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone