Tennis Betting Advice - January 2025
Australian Open picks - and our new WhatsApp channel...
Wednesday 8th January 2025
We’re on a mission to scoop up some of the most appealing pre-tournament Each Way prices for the first Grand Slam of 2025, the Australian Open. Play starts in Melbourne late Saturday night, UK time…
As well as hunting out new, young players on the up - available at big prices before they make the Grand Slam breakthrough. I'm also always on the lookout for players on the comeback from injury, and/ or bouncing back into form after a slump or time away from the game: a proven top-level player, available at underdog odds.
Or as the old saying goes - form is temporary, class is permanent...
Earlier this week we availed ourselves of the 150/1 and 100/1 on offer for two-time Grand Slam finalist, Marketa Vondrousova. Read more here. She’s still 100/1 as I write (Tuesday night) with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, and Unibet & fellow Kambi sportsbook brands (eg. BetMGM, BetUK…).
At the end of last season (14th November), we got on another talented and potentially dangerous left-hander, Denis Shapovalov. With the Canadian on offer for the Australian Open 2025 men’s title at 100/1+, with Unibet & co briefly dangling 300/1. He’s still 250/1 with those firms now, 200/1 with Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral, and 100/1 or greater in general.
As noted in your new Ones to Watch 2025 Report, 11 of the last 34 women’s Grand Slam finalists started the tournament at 100/1+. With 13 of the last 19 Majors producing at least one female in the singles final at day-one odds of 33/1+. That’s the kind of landscape we work in here at Ones to Watch…
Two names to add to our Aussie Open portfolio today. These are all about the prices, with the odds in both cases having real potential to drop significantly once the action gets going in Melbourne over the next fortnight…
Madison Keys has reached the 3rd round or better in nine of her last 10 Grand Slam appearances. I’ve criticised her as flaky before, but to be fair, the big-hitting American hasn’t crashed and burned in the 1st round of a ‘Slam since the US Open 2021. We were on Keys at 16/1 Each Way when she reached what to date remains her sole appearance in a Grand Slam final, coming runner-up to compatriot and friend (and our winning 40/1 shot) Sloane Stephens in New York back in 2017.
Keys has also reached the semi finals in a Major on five other occasions. Including in Australia in 2022 (and also as a teenager in 2015). Along with making the last four at the French Open (2018), and the US Open in 2018 and most recently, in 2023.
That’s quite the Grand Slam résumé for someone who’s never won one. Now aged 29, and starting the new 2025 season with a quarter final in Auckland, New Zealand last week. The situation remains the same as ever with Madison: the match is on her racket. If she stays injury-free (and controls her nerves), then she can push anyone off the court.
Ranked no.20 in the world, Keys will be seeded in the Australian Open draw. That should help…
Add in the fact that the ever-popular Keys seems genuinely happy and relaxed off-court these days - married to former player and current coach Bjorn Fratangelo last November. Maddie might just have a newfound calm edge that helps her finally make that extra step, and fulfill some of that original teenage promise. Odds of 100/1 certainly allow for the element of doubt. I haven’t put Madison Keys up as a bet at any tournament for ages, but I’m doing so as a credible long-shot here.
We backed Ons Jabeur at 40/1 as an early-bird ante-post pick for Wimbledon in 2022... she went off on day one at SW19 that summer having been chopped to just 12/1, only to suffer a heartbreaking defeat in the final, having won the first set…
The Tunisian reached the Wimbledon championship match again 12 months later, only to be denied as the favourite - and left distraught - once again. Add in a US Open runner-up appearance in late summer 2022, too, and the former world no.2 has three Grand Slam finals on her CV. But what she craves is a winner's trophy.
Jabeur got to the Australian Open quarter finals in 2020, stopped by our 50/1 winner that January, Sofia Kenin. A year later, Ons fell at the hands of an eventual Aussie Open champion again, this time knocked out in the 2nd round by a surging Naomi Osaka.
After injuries, and self-confessed setbacks/ mental baggage, dropping to a current ranking of no.40, which doesn't reflect her talent or top level at all… maybe Melbourne Park is a more low-pressure setting for Jabeur to finally achieve her Grand Slam dream than the romance (and scar tissue) of Wimbledon...
If the much-loved Jabeur does lift a Major trophy, don't be surprised to see her wave a happy and tearful goodbye to the sport for a while; the 30-year-old has previously said the plan was to win a Grand Slam, and then have a baby.
Playing her first tournament since August last year, Jabeur started her 2025 season with a quarter-final run at WTA Brisbane last week. Before heading to Adelaide this week, where Ons continued to build up her new-season form, showcasing plenty of her trademark mix of flair and power in a straight-sets victory over former Australian Open finalist, Danielle Collins.
As with our 100/1+ pick from earlier this week, world no.39 Marketa Vondrousova. At no.40 in the current rankings, Jabeur is a much better player than that ranking suggests, is on the comeback after injury - and has been to Grand Slam finals before…
We’ll take Ons Jabeur at anything from 66/1 - 40/1 for the Australian Open right now. See below for best odds and bookies.
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Follow my new WhatsApp channel…
New for 2025…
I’ll be using a WhatsApp channel to alert you when my tennis emails have been sent out, so you know when to check your email inbox (and remember, all the emails are also uploaded to the archives on the Ones to Watch website.)
If you’re a WhatsApp user, just go to this link and then sign up to Follow the Ones to Watch channel.
And make sure you turn on your Notifications bell, so you don’t miss an update.
If you’re not a smartphone fan or don’t have WhatsApp, don’t worry - you will still continue to receive all the betting picks, advice, analysis, and members-only info as usual by email and via the Ones to Watch website. Nothing changes in that respect.
This new WhatsApp channel is an extra way for me to stay in touch with you. The more people we have on the channel, the better…
Follow the Ones to Watch WhatsApp channel here >>
With the Australian Open taking place over the next fortnight, you might find these WhatsApp alerts especially useful!
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Australian Open 2025 - Women’s:
Madison Keys @ 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, BetMGM & BetUK
Ons Jabeur @ 66/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 and 40/1 in general
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I’ll be in touch with more Australian Open info for you on Friday.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone