Tennis Betting Advice - March 2025
Holger's in the Money Match...
Friday 14th March 2025
I’d rather be on him at the 50/1 available at the start of the tournament. But after pulling out of Acapulco with food poisoning last time out, I wanted to see how Holger Rune shaped up here in Indian Wells…
And the answer is, very well indeed…
The 21-year-old Dane is having his best tournament for some time. The last two matches are the best I’ve seen him play for over a year.
Rune beat Stefanos Tsitispas in the round of Last 16 this week, overcoming underdog odds in the Match Winner market.
Holger then came from a set down to impressively finish off Tallon Griekspoor last night; an opponent who previously held a 2-0 head-to-record v Rune.
Confidence and arrogance can often be misconstrued. Rune always plays with the swagger that I like to see from a talented youngster. (I’d rather that than the flat, nervous, down-on-himself vibes that we saw from our defeated 100/1+ pick Botic Van De Zandschulp earlier this week. If you’re not confident on court after beating Novak Djokovic in your most recent match, when will you ever be?).
Speaking to the Tennis Channel after the Tsitsipas win, when asked about where he feels his game and his form is right now, a relaxed and smiling Rune said:
“I’m starting to get warm, I think”...
Watch the video here. That doesn’t look and sound like an arrogant player to me. More like a happy and confident young man…
We got on Rune after the 3rd Round at Indian Wells this week, taking odds of 20/1 or 18/1 Each Way on Tuesday.
As I say, in an ideal world we’d be on at some of the pre-tournament 50/1 or 40/1 instead. But then again, now that he’s through to the Semi Finals on Saturday, Holger is now trading at just 10/1 - with the bookies only betting Win Only.
The Each Way part of our Outright bet (at 1/2 odds for 1-2 places) means we’ve effectively got odds of 10/1 (11.0) on Rune to beat two-time returning Indian Wells finalist Daniil Medvedev tomorrow. When the bookies’ match prices make that upset just 11/8 (2.38).
Also, as I said last Thursday: you can’t back them all…
Looking at the day-one Outright Winner prices from last week, before a ball was hit. Rune is the biggest outsider in the betting still left in the tournament - across both the men’s & women’s Indian Wells draws.
We’ve successfully latched on to Rune hitting form at a big Masters 1000 event before. Backing him at 33/1 halfway through the Paris Masters 2022, where he went on to beat Djokovic in the Final and win a first ATP 1000 title. Holger had also started that event as a 50/1 outsider…
Next week, we’re off to the Miami Open. Play begins across Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s another big, joint men’s & women’s Masters 1000 tournament. And just like Indian Wells, it’s got a history of big-odds upsets and surprise finalists.
P.S
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone