Tennis Betting Advice - September 2023
US Open Day 5: American entertainers at 46/1...
Friday 1st September 2023
Welcome to your US Open Daily Service – Day 5. Play starts in New York at 4pm, UK time…
Marie and Marketa looking good…
I don’t expect you to have stayed up past 3am watching the match last night. So, let me tell you that 18-year-old Linda Noskova gave a very good account of herself against Ons Jabeur, and had chances to win…
The Czech teenager had a 3-2 lead in the final set, but world no.5 Jabeur – clearly not feeling her best – managed to claw herself back to victory.
Taking a Top 5 player & three-time Grand Slam finalist to the full three sets in a big-stadium, high-pressure situation like that is a very good sign for Noskova. We should certainly keep her on the radar at big prices, for as long as we can get them.
We’ll get a second bite at taking out the out-of-sorts Jabeur in the next round. Our 250/1 – 100/1 pick Marie Bouzkova was an impressive 6-1, 6-2 winner last night.
And our third Czech woman, Marketa Vondrousova, played arguably even better. The match commentator called her performance ‘about as good as it gets.’ Winning 6-2, 6-2. Our 20/1+ selection moves into the 3rd round.
The bookies now have Vondrousova at 18/1 and 16/1 in general. Sporting Index Fixed Odds are an industry-best 20/1 – although long-time Ones to Watch member Frank H writes in with a good point about Sporting Index’s standout prices:
“Afternoon Oliver my friend. Just thought I'd give you my thoughts on the Spread/ fixed odds firm Sporting Index. They may be best price about a lot of players in the outright markets but even trying to get a £5 EW on proves very problematical! 3 times this week l have tried and each time have been told my stake is too high (they never tell you how much they will lay you!) and when you lower your stake you still get the same message. Their best prices, too me anyway, are just a ploy to get you to visit their site.
Rant over, thanks as always for an excellent service,
FRANK”
Svitolina digs deep…
Liudmila Samsonova was also a solid straight-sets winner again yesterday, 6-3, 6-3. The Russian, in the book on Day 1 at top prices of 66/1 and 50/1, is still available at 50s this morning with Skybet. 40/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. Those scamps at Sporting Index are dangling a standout 60/1… it looks like Frank’s theory is correct!
Elina Svitolina came from behind to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova last night. Our Ukrainian selection is played 4 won 4 against Russian opponents this year. Svitolina is still available at a best-price 66/1 Each Way with Betway, and 60/1 with Sporting Index…
In the men’s betting, we lost Hubert Hurkacz yesterday. The Pole was feeling under the weather, too. It appears there’s a bit of a bug going round the locker-room. American Tommy Paul seemed a bit off-colour the other night, too.
Sinner one of seven…
Better news from our flagship Ones to Watch men’s pick Jannik Sinner. Backed at 16/1 and 14/1, the 22-year-old Italian is looking very sharp. Posting a pair of comprehensive 3-0 wins so far.
With the three title favourites Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Daniil Medvedev all at single-figure quotes and through to the 3rd round. World no.6 Sinner is still available at 14/1 with the likes of Skybet, William Hill, and Boylesports. And a standout 16/1 with (you guessed it) Sporting Index.
Overall, since the start of the tournament, we’ve backed 10 players across the men’s & women’s Outright Winner markets. That’s 3.9% of the field. On average, as a guide but not a rule, I tend to name around a dozen picks in total throughout a Grand Slam, give or take, depending on the prices, form, draw, tournament conditions, and so on. If anyone catches the eye as hitting form and looking to emerge as a dangerous dark horse in Week 2, I will of course alert you to them in this column…
As is stands, we have seven Ones to Watch picks through to the 3rd round. With our book deliberately weighted towards having more selections at big prices in the women’s event – for reasons outlined pre-tournament here and here.
Still in the running and playing again today or tomorrow, we have:
Men:
Taylor Fritz
Jannik Sinner
Women:
Belinda Bencic
Liudmila Samsonova
Elina Svitolina
Marketa Vondrousova
Marie Bouzkova
Match picks – Day 5…
The Friday schedule features a few close-looking matches. Including a trio of men’s encounters where the American player is priced as the slight favourite – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset or two, and/ or a couple of rollercoaster, five-set battles:
Tommy Paul v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Ben Shelton v Aslan Karatsev
Adrian Mannarino v Frances Tiafoe
Paul has a 2-0 head-to-head v Davidovich Fokina, including a five-setter at the Australian Open this year. The American had a 3-2 tussle the other night; like Hurkacz, he had to come from two sets down to scrape through. The Pole then crashed and burned in his next match. Today’s Spanish opponent arrives in form, although Alejandro is a ‘character’ and usually throws in a few mad/ unreliable moments in matches.
5 Sets is the call…
The same goes for US rising star Shelton, with the still raw-around-the-edges youngster full of energy and big shots – but also prone to wobbles and spells of erratic shot-making. The 20-year-old will have the crowd right behind him, and Ben will be playing to them. Playing the quiet underdog, and possibly underrated here, is 29-year-old Karatsev. The Russian was a surprise semi-finalist at the 2021 Australian Open, coming through qualifying to reach the last four at massive odds. When he’s fit and in the zone, Aslan is dangerous.
As for last year’s US Open semi-finalist Tiafoe, well, American fans will be hoping he doesn’t suffer the same fate as current Grand Slam nearly-woman Ons Jabeur… like the Tunisian, Tiafoe wears his heart on his sleeve. And after losing a five-set heartbreaker against eventual champion Alcaraz in the semis here in New York last September, an emotional Frances declared that ‘one day he’s gonna win this thing.’ Publicly vocalised, that kind of self-imposed pressure has not served Jabeur well so far. This evening’s opponent Mannarino is vastly experienced, and as with both Davidovich Fokina and Karatsev today, the Frenchman is not likely to be a pushover.
The three home players may ultimately justify their match-winner odds here. But for me, the best way to side with a potential hard-fought result or upset is to get behind these three matches in the Total Sets market – and go for the full five…
For more modest odds, consider the Total Games ‘Over’ options instead. I’m going for the bigger prices. With around 5/2 (3.5) each available for 5 Sets. And for a smaller stake (say half a point), the treble pays 46/1…
Note: in the Total Sets betting. some bookies call 5 Sets ‘Over 4.5 Sets.’
And once again, Oddschecker is not doing its job properly, failing to list several mainstream bookies for this market – despite it being available with many if not all firms. I’ve listed the best prices from William Hill below. Other bookies with these bets available include Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (‘Alternative Total Sets – Over 4.5’), Ladbrokes & Coral, Skybet, Betway, Unibet, Sporting Index Fixed Odds.
_____________________________________________
Ones to Watch picks – US Open:
See above for full details and more bookies
_____________________________________________
Play starts in those men’s matches from 5pm.
You can watch the US Open live on Sky Sports. Live streaming is also available with the likes of Bet365 and Skybet.
I’ll be back by 11am Saturday with your Day 6 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone